Nescire autem quid ante quam natus sis acciderit, id est semper esse
puerum. Quid enim est aetas hominis, nisi ea memoria rerum veterum cum
superiorum aetate contexitur?
Cicero, Marcus
Tullius
(106-43BC)
The white clouds cover my robe when I sit on a rock. The moon
exists in the bottle when I draw water from a fountain and fill it
up.
Mitsudo Fujimura (1870-1949)
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This is a RSS feed conglomeration (see bottom of page for a list) meant to provide some information about the things I care about.
New reports of overblocking on mobile networks [Open Rights Group]
(Blog) Since we launched our new research about Mobile Internet censorship on Monday, there's been a rise in the number of reports to our website Blocked.org.uk of what people consider to be incorrectly blocked sites. The 19 new reports include technology news sites such as GigaOM, a style and fashion magazine, the website of political party the BNP, and a local community discussion forum.
Friendly Fungi: Elucidating the fungal biosynthesis of stipitatic acid [Phys.org: Feature story]
(Phys.org) -- In a tale worthy of Sherlock Holmes, scientists in the School of Chemistry at the University of Bristol, UK have solved a biochemical mystery that had previously proven elusive for 70 years: How the fungus Talaromyces stipitatus produces stipitatic acid (6), which is a tropolone, one of an atypical group of fungal natural products – that is, small molecules produced by genetically encoded pathways – with a seven-carbon ring. (Most natural products, such as cholesterol or phenylalanine, have five or six carbons in rings.) The researchers used a two-part biosynthetic approach – gene deletion and alternate genetic expression – to investigate the molecular pathway in question.
US Congress and MEDEVAC [Michael Yon - Online Magazine]
17 May 2012
The US MEDEVAC issue is picking up speed and mass. There is so much progress that it is difficult to track. A separate and excellent website dedicated to the issue has popped up at http://medevacmatters.org/
Also, the highly respected writer and war correspondent Yochi Dreazen picked up the ball. Yochi has spent years in the wars and so he was able to quickly dial into the importance of the issue and the authorities involved. On 10 May, Yochi published an article in the National Journal, which was reprinted on the website of Congressman Todd Akin:
“After writing about the issue, Yon recruited an array of congressional lawmakers who agreed with his point of view. Seventeen members, led by Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., wrote to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta earlier this year. “This policy may contribute to unnecessary delays in transporting our most critically wounded soldiers and Marines to appropriate medical care,” the letter said. “Our concern is … that Pentagon policy decisions are needlessly restricting this medical care or are limiting the ability of commanders to evacuate the wounded.”

Please read the entire article. (By the way, I strongly think that the military’s position on the 92% survival rate is smoke and mirrors.)
Revamped Flight Medic Training [Michael Yon - Online Magazine]
17 May 2012
Written by MEDEVACmatters.org
Good news. Enhanced Flight Medic Training Begins
After over a decade of urgent calls for upgraded training of Army flight medics, it has begun. This article provides some details of what is involved. As noted, Army statistics have long shown that wounded troops rescued by National Guard MEDEVAC crews have a 66% higher chance of survival than if they were rescued by Regular Army MEDEVAC crews. This difference is directly attributable to the level of training attained by the crews and prior trauma experience. Most National Guard flight medics are paramedics in their civilian life, so they have more extensive training as well as daily contact with trauma victims. Even civilian paramedics, however, need additional training to handle military war casualties.
The other area of good news is that flight medics also will be trained for en route critical care of stabilized patients. What most people don’t realize is that a huge percentage of MEDEVAC flights entail the transfer of wounded troops from one level medical treatment facility (MTF) to another. These patients often are hooked up to various types of medical/life sustaining equipment which the typical flight medic is not trained on or certified to use. As a result there is a substantial risk to many patients during the transfer flight that their condition may seriously deteriorate. The Army attempted to address this with the assignment of en route critical care nurses, but as was reported by Col. Robert Mabry in his after action report in 2011 – those nurses had not been properly trained (indeed, many were unaware that they would be assigned to helicopter rather than ground transfer duties) and suffered from weak leadership in the field.
These much delayed positive changes should be acknowledged and applauded. However, I was informed by someone close to the MEDEVAC program that no special program was in place to assure that Regular Army MEDEVAC flight medics scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan in the next year would be enrolled in the enhanced training program before deployment. It is interesting that the early enrollees appear to be among the National Guard crews already providing the higher level of care and achieving the higher survival rates for their patients. Wouldn’t have made sense initially to maximize the number of Regular Army flights medics getting this training – especially those going to the combat zone? [If someone can provide updated information about enrollment policies and timelines, I would appreciate it.]
Note the comment from Army Master Sgt. Kym Ricketts, chief medical non-commissioned officer with the Army National Guard, “It’s advanced, pre-hospital medical care.” The term pre-hospital care is relatively unknown but includes all the medical care provided to the wounded from the time of injury to the time the patient is in the hands of medical staff at a medical treatment facility. MEDEVAC is but one portion of the spectrum of pre-hospital care for the wounded. As discussed in How the Army is slow to meet MEDEVAC Challenges in the 21st Century this also covers Tactical Combat Casualty Care training and doctrine, as well as pre-hospital care trauma registries that track the wounded and their care discussed in US Army Report: 2011 After action report blasts MEDEVAC shortcomings.
The article follows:
Army National Guard medics among first to attend revamped flight medic program
National Guard Bureau
Story by Sgt. 1st Class Jon Soucy
Date: 05.15.2012
Posted: 05.15.2012 14:07
News ID: 88451
Army National Guard medics among first to attend revamped flight medic program
By Army National Guard Sgt. 1st Class Jon Soucy
National Guard Bureau
ARLINGTON, Va. – Medics from the Army National Guard are among those taking part in a pilot program designed to revamp the training that flight medics throughout the Army will receive.
Taught at Fort Sam Houston, Texas, the program will provide flight medics with additional paramedic and critical care training and certifications.
“A paramedic provides a higher level of care,” said Army Master Sgt. Kym Ricketts, chief medical non-commissioned officer with the Army National Guard. “It’s advanced, pre-hospital medical care.”
Currently, to be a flight medic, a soldier must be a qualified combat medic and be in a flight medic slot, but since flight medics operate under different conditions those requirements are changing to reflect that.
“The medics need additional training as flight medics as they do a higher standard of care and in a different environment than a line medic on the ground,” Ricketts said.
The program is designed to emphasize that fact and focus on training soldiers on those additional skills needed as a flight medic.
As part of the pilot program and proposed changes, soldiers go through three phases of training specific to flight medic duty.
“The first one is the flight medic phase,” Ricketts said, adding that it can be waivered in lieu of on-the-job training. “Phase two is the nationally registered paramedic [course], which is the longest phase, and phase three is the critical care transport piece.”
The push for making changes to flight medic requirements came from a number of elements, including a study done on a California Army National Guard medical evacuation unit that deployed to Afghanistan with full-fledged paramedics in flight medic positions.
“[The study found that with] having flight paramedics in the back of an aircraft there was a 66 percent higher survivability rate than with a straight [combat medic] that wasn’t paramedic trained,” Ricketts said.
Additionally, proposed changes to the flight medic requirements also mean that graduates of the program walk away with national certifications as paramedics. That provides additional benefits including a greater flexibility with integrating with local, state and other agencies in a disaster situation, she said.
“A citizen-soldier can do their wartime mission as well as their peacetime mission of taking care of their community,” Ricketts said, adding that those certifications are the same received by civilian paramedics.
But the important part, she said, is simply providing the best care possible.
“The benefit is the best battlefield medicine and care that a soldier can get,” she said.
“With the forward surgical teams that are out there casualties are actually having surgical intervention on the ground at the point of injury,” Ricketts said. “Combined with these medics that are able to have this training … the [casualty] will be getting the best standard of care.”
The pilot program wraps up later in the year and will then go through a review process.
“It’s still a pilot program and once the pilot program is through we’ll do an analysis to see what works best,” she said.
Ricketts remains positive about the results of the program.
“These medics are going to affect so many people,” she said. “Not just American forces, but coalition forces as well, and that’s amazing.”
The original story can be found at MEDEVACmatters.org
MEDEVAC Links [Michael Yon - Online Magazine]
27 January 2012 The MEDEVAC issue continues to grow. There have been many articles and it's becoming difficult to keep up. The Joint Chiefs of Staff is preparing something for Congress. My guess based on conversations is that JCS will try deflection and will not solve the issue. SecDef has done nothing, to my knowledge. And so this is set to become an election issue. This list below is not comprehensive but can be a helpful resource. Please listen to my interview with Dennis Miller. LINKS Op-eds by James Simpson American Thinker http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/01/incomprehensibly_stupid_army_regulation_killing_americans_in_afghanistan.html http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/02/no_sex_many_lies_one_videotape_and_a_soldiers_unnecessary_death.html Breitbart Big Peace http://bigpeace.com/jmsimpson/2012/01/09/incomprehensibly-stupid-army-regulation-killing-americans-in-afghanistan/ Examiner.com—D.C. Examiner http://www.examiner.com/independent-in-washington-dc/incomprehensibly-stupid-army-regulation-killing-americans-afghanistan?cid=PROD-redesign-right-next Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/16/bureaucracy-killing-us-troops-in-afghanistan/ http://times247.com/articles/army-s-medevac-chopper-policy-in-need-of-revision ---------- Army Times Article in the Army Times about Congressman Todd Akin's (R-MI) letter to Sec Def Panetta: http://www.armytimes.com/news/2012/01/military-lawmaker-arm-medevac-helos-to-save-more-lives-011712/ Navy Times Article in the Navy Times about Congressman Todd Akin's (R-MI) letter to Sec Def Panetta http://www.navytimes.com/mobile/index.php?storyUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.navytimes.com%2Fnews%2F2012%2F01%2Fmilitary-lawmaker-arm-medevac-helos-to-save-more-lives-011712%2F ------ Dispatches by Michael Yon http://www.michaelyon-online.com/ 17 May 2012 US Congress and MEDEVAC http://www.michaelyon-online.com/us-congress-and-medevac.htm 09 May 2012 MEDEVAC Madness http://www.michaelyon-online.com/medevac-madness.htm 23 April 2012 Dark Night http://www.michaelyon-online.com/dark-night.htm 22 April 2012 Did Green Berets and MEDEVAC Violate Geneva Conventions in Afghanistan? http://www.michaelyon-online.com/did-green-berets-and-medevac-violate-geneva-conventions-in-afghanistan.htm 13 April 2012 America’s Angry Troops http://www.michaelyon-online.com/americas-angry-troops.htm 07 Mar 2012 Senator Levin on MEDEVAC http://www.michaelyon-online.com/senator-levin-on-medevac.htm 01 Mar 2012 MEDEVAC Momentum: Senate Armed Services Committee to Raise the Issue http://www.michaelyon-online.com/medevac-momentum-senate-armed-services-committee-to-raise-the-issue.htm 25 Feb 2012 White Birds in a Red War http://www.michaelyon-online.com/white-birds-in-a-red-war.htm 23 Feb 2012 Army Dustoff Medics Unprepared http://www.michaelyon-online.com/army-dustoff-medics-unprepared.htm 18 Feb 2012 A Hypothetical Interview General Martin Dempsey: (Fiction) http://www.michaelyon-online.com/a-hypothetical-interview-general-martin-dempsey-fiction.htm 15 Feb 2012 Department of Army Monitoring MEDEVAC Articles http://www.michaelyon-online.com/department-of-army-monitoring-medevac-articles.htm 14 Feb 2012 Tippity Top General Lies to Congressman (in writing) http://www.michaelyon-online.com/tippity-top-general-lies-to-congressman-in-writing.htm 11 Feb 2012 A Matter of Trust http://www.michaelyon-online.com/a-matter-of-trust.htm 05 Feb 2012 Contempt of and for Congress? http://www.michaelyon-online.com/contempt-of-and-for-congress.htm 03 Feb 2012 17 Members of Congress Want Answers on MEDEVAC http://www.michaelyon-online.com/17-members-of-congress-want-answers-on-medevac.htm 03 Feb 2012 Crucifixion of Common Sense http://www.michaelyon-online.com/crucifixion-of-common-sense.htm 02 Feb 2012 The Army MEDEVAC Scandal: Report of Conspiracy http://www.michaelyon-online.com/the-army-medevac-scandal-report-of-conspiracy.htm 31 Jan 2012 Important Letter from Gold Star Mother http://www.michaelyo
Letter from Civil Society to the World Conference on International Telecommunications (WCIT) [Open Rights Group]
(Correspondence) The World Conference on International Telecommunications (WCIT) will take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from 3-14 December 2012, is the first ever WCIT in the history of the International Telecommunication Union.
Civil Society organisations from around the world, including the Open Righs Group, have signed a joint letter raising concerns with the process so far.
Mobile Internet censorship: what's happening and what we can do about it [Open Rights Group]
(Report) This report is about mobile Internet censorship. It looks at the way mobile phone networks filter co…
Genetic Credit Scoring [H+ Magazine]
Should you give your genetic information to a credit bureau?
I was recently looking for a housing mortgage and that brought me in contact with credit bureaus. These companies collect your personal information and banking data and use them in statistical models to calculate your credit score – a value that correlates to the chance that you will pay back your debts. Banks use this score to decide whether they will lend you money.
Some of this information is reassuringly linked to good behaviour, like previous convictions or unpaid debt. But others parts seem rather arbitrary. Your credit score improves with the period you stayed at your recent address. Is there something wrong with moving house? Surely not, but it drops your credit score, because people who move house a lot seem statistically less likely to pay back their debts.
Credit bureaus are traditionally paid by the lenders, but they increasingly try to turn consumers into customers well. Telling individuals how their credit score was calculated does not only provide transparency that might deflect a backlash by rejected consumers. It also makes some consumers subscribe to the credit bureau’s service and work on improving their score. Volunteering detailed information on your last six places of residence, for example, improves your credit score. So I wondered: Would I volunteer my genetic information to improve my credit score?
Right now, credit bureaus can do very little with huge files full of genetic code. But given enough genetic sequences linked to personal payment histories, they would soon figure out what genetic patterns correlate to financial behaviour. Once they have done so and once I had my genetic information sequenced – and assuming for the sake of this argument only that I can trust the bureaus to keep all data confidential – why not give them my genetic information to gain an advantage?
On second thoughts, how sure can I be that this would be to my advantage? I might have a “scoundrel gene” that pulls my score right down – maybe, because the rating agency has not yet learned to appreciate my “anti-scoundrel gene” that more than makes up for it – or because I have much more genetic inclination to become a scoundrel than I previously thought. It might be better to run my genetic information first through a public version of the scoring software, see what I get and only forward the data when it really benefits me.
Others will do the same and soon the credit-seeking population will be divided into two groups: those who give their genetic information because it improves their credit score and those who do not – either because it would drag down their score or out of principle. The second group, containing more high-risk individuals, will have a lower average credit score. As nearly all of its members will claim that they withhold the information merely out of principle, the credit bureau will have no way of differentiating and consequently reduce the credit score of all members of this group according to the group average. That will put a price on having principles.
People with a mildly unfortunate genetic sequence that reduces their credit score by less than the group average for all those who object would then benefit from revealing their genetic information. The more of them do, the more the average score of the objector group will drop and the more the costs of belonging to it will increase. Credit bureaus will surely offer help – if only to reduce the number of unhappy customers – for example, by ignoring a genetic pattern that indicates a higher likelihood to commit suicide when the customer has an appropriate life insurance. Every person who finds a way of coping with the shortcomings in his genetic pattern and therefore reveals it will increase the percentage of people in the objector group who are not likely to cope and further lower the credit score of the remaining group members.
From a merely financial point of view, any additional information that helps to manage risk is welcome. The ethical issue is more difficult. We find it fair to judge people by their actions, say, for stealing a car. But it feels unfair to judge them by a piece of genetic code that was passed on to them without their doing. On the other hand – we readily rate people according to their intelligence, although it is partially inherited, and the schools they went to, although these were mainly determined by their parents. Views are bound to differ widely and before deciding on whether to allow the use of genetic information for credit scoring, it might be worth looking at possible ways to prevent it.
The obvious solution seems to be secrecy. What is not known cannot be abused. But the amount of genetic information that needs to be kept secret will grow exponentially in the near future. Dropping costs of genetic sequencing will make it a standard part of medical diagnosis. Some people will use it to explore their personal strengths and weaknesses, others to find their ideal mate. The more uses for genetic information are found, the more attractive it will become to steal it in large style. There are many employees of banks, personnel agencies, secret services, police forces, industrial companies and political parties who would not mind gaining a competitive advantage – even at the price of having to deal with a slightly tainted consulting agency in less-regulated country. This would create huge business opportunities for criminals – which makes the secrecy option rather questionable.
It might be possible to find better options, at least in the personal credit sector. Instead of keeping genetic information secret, one could simply prohibit its use. Credit bureaus and lenders who calculate their own score could be obliged by law to publish their formula for calculating the credit score. Any customer who gets a lower score than the formula predicts would immediately complain – which would make sure that no hidden information is used. Lenders would then have to be obliged by law to base all their lending decisions on that type of score. This option might release less criminal energy, but it would surely require a lot of nosy supervision.
Alternatively, one might allow the use of any genetic information that is provided voluntarily and encourage consumers to provide it. That would shrink the illegal data market and the resentment of the consumers that goes with it. Naturally, those who got short-changed in the genetic lottery will be disadvantaged. But instead of using the law to prevent everybody else from taking note of that , caring societies might distinguish themselves by recognising and helping the disadvantaged.
Some of this help might be based on recognising voluntary effort, e.g. those genetically more prone to gambling addiction might score by banning themselves from casinos. But other unfortunates might require direct subsidising. This is already done in some areas of life, for example, most people will agree that their society should use some communal funds to help those who become paralysed due to no fault of their own. Why not extend that concept and help those who happen to have a genetic pattern that makes them prone to undesirable financial behaviour? They certainly got this pattern due to no fault of their own, so communal funds might well pay for an insurance that improves their credit score – at least as long as they cooperate in reducing the residual risk.
It is obvious that accepting these principles would change a society far beyond credit scoring. Much of the behaviour that is now considered as part of a person’s free choice would then be classified as the result of a genetic disadvantage that has to be covered by a caring social insurance. However, would that be a bad outcome?
ROLAND SCHIEFER was born in 1951 in Vienna and holds an MSc in Biophysics and a PhD in Medicine. Following work in environmental physiology at the German Institute for Aerospace Medicine, he developed energy supply planning tools at the Pestel Institute in Hanover, Germany, performed contract research work, including physiological telemetry systems, image processing, environmental effects on mental performance and facet analysis at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research in South Africa, was co-founder and director of an internet-based education company and an independent consultant for electronic commerce systems. His broad interdisciplinary experience serves as the basis for his recent book “All In The Mind”.
Interview: Michael Sfard, the Israeli lawyer battling illegal settlements [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Oil proceeds: Venezuelan driver wins F1 race with $66 million from Chavez [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Afghan insurgent attacks down: A sign of widening Taliban fractures? [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Make editorial status fast! [Andart]
Some scientific journals have low standards. Usually this means low standards for their submissions: just send things in, get something good-looking for your publication list, the publisher gets another journal to add to their already bloated bundle they are forcing...
Skew fitness and genetic screening [Andart]
Bad seed is a robbery of the worst kind: prolific sperm donation and screening | Practical Ethics I blog about the issue of kids being born from sperm donations sometimes coming down with genetic conditions: some of the screening is...
The Woman Who Blew Up the Arab World [Michael J. Totten's blog]

“Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”
– Mathematician and chaos theorist Edward Lorenz
On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip shot and killed Austria’s Archduke Ferdinand in the streets of Sarajevo—a fateful act that triggered a series of events culminating in the First World War.
Ninety-six years later, on December 17, 2010, an impoverished Tunisian fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of city hall in the small town of Sidi Bouzid—another fateful act that changed the history of an entire region forever.
Protests supporting Bouazizi first turned to riots and then revolution. The crooked authoritarian ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was overthrown in Tunis less than a month later. A copy-cat uprising in Egypt led to a bloodless military coup against strongman Hosni Mubarak. Libya’s Moammar Qaddafi was next on the list, though this time it took civil war and aerial bombardment from NATO to be rid of him. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad may follow them sooner or later, but the war to oust him has already killed more than 10,000 people and is beginning to spread into Lebanon.
Princip died in prison four years after killing Austria’s archduke. He knew what his actions unleashed on the world. He couldn’t participate any further than he already had, but he knew.
Bouazizi only survived his self-immolation by a couple of weeks. He languished, comatose, in a hospital in Sfax the entire time. He had no idea he inspired even a protest, let alone a revolution, a coup, and a number of wars.
He killed himself because he could not make a living. And he did it before city hall because he blamed the government.
According to rumors and initial reports, a female police officer spent months picking on him for selling fruit from his cart without a license. Things came to a head when she confiscated his goods and allegedly slapped him. When city officials refused to give him his stuff back, he poured gasoline over his head, lit a match, and set the world ablaze.

The woman who allegedly slapped him is named Faida Hamdi. I met her at a quiet park just off the main street in town where she said almost everything published in the media about her is wrong.
We sat in plastic chairs on the grass behind a swing set for children. She ordered—and insisted she pay for—glasses of sweet tea from a concessionaire. A man who looked like an ultraconservative Salafist brought the tea over. I wondered what he thought about a local woman hanging out with an obvious foreign infidel, but if he was perturbed he didn’t let on.
“First of all,” she said. “I’m not a cop.” She works for the municipality as a civilian. “My job was to chase away illegal fruit vendors. I don’t carry a gun. I don’t have a truncheon. I don’t carry a weapon at all.”
She says she hadn’t been picking on Bouazizi, that she had never even spoken to him before that day.
“I had been tolerating his illegal work for a long time,” she said, “but that week I had an order from the ministry to confiscate any merchandise sold from any illegal vendor from that particular place. So I was doing my job. When I confronted him he said, ‘why are you targeting me? If I paid you bribes, you wouldn’t target me.’”
She says she doesn’t take bribes, but the city is known to be crooked. Maybe she’s clean. I don’t know. But her bosses are not.
Though she says she confiscated the electronic scale Bouazizi used to weigh fruit, she emphatically denies that she ever slapped him.
“He pushed me,” she said, “and actually wounded me. So I screamed.”
Some local men told me he may have grabbed or hit her breasts. No one seems to be sure. I didn’t ask her about it. Why embarrass a modestly dressed Muslim woman with such a question? She suffered enough humiliation during the revolution. The entire country and much of the rest of the world thought her a tool of a repressive police state.
The flip side of everyone believing Bouazizi grabbed or hit her breasts is that such a story—even if it isn’t true—improves her image in the minds of others. She is no longer perceived, at least not by everyone and at least not exclusively, as the aggressor.
I didn’t ask her to talk about her breasts, but she did tell me that Bouazizi hit and pushed her.
“I called the police,” she said. “They weren’t armed either when they showed up, nor did they attack him. They just pushed him away so he couldn’t hit me. They confiscated his things and took him down to the station.”
An eye-witness told a reporter from the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that she didn’t slap Bouazizi, but that the police really did beat him. Maybe they did and maybe they didn’t. We’ll never know.
“In a small town like this,” she said, “a woman hitting a man is a headline. But the rest of the day was normal for me. I went home as if nothing had happened. Then I got a call that Bouazizi had burned himself.”
According to the international news media, Bouazizi was a university graduate struggling to eke out a meager existence, the Tunisian equivalent of an American with a master’s degree in literature or philosophy working the barista counter at Starbucks. It made for a great story, but it wasn’t true. His family says he did not even graduate high school. Lots of kids in towns like Sidi Bouzid don’t finish high school. Their families sometimes struggle so mightily that it makes at least short-term sense for the kids to drop out and work.
Don’t get the wrong idea, though. Tunisia isn’t Third World. Sidi Bouzid is about as bad as it gets, but look at the pictures.


It isn’t horrifying like the slums of Bangladesh or Cairo’s City of the Dead. Sidi Bouzid is just depressed and a little bit hopeless for most who don’t leave.
Everyone I spoke to in town, and in the also-impoverished nearby city of Kasserine, said Tunisia’s poor are yearning for jobs. No one said they want handouts or subsidies from the state. They want to work. They’ll work their fingers bleeding for scandalously small amounts of money. Hamdi herself makes only fifty dollars a month. The cost of living in Sidi Bouzid is low, but still. Fifty dollars a month is practically nothing. My lunch that day cost less than two dollars, but it was four percent of her monthly salary. An average house rents for 200 dollars a month. A big one rents for 300 dollars a month.
Official spokespeople say Bouazizi sold fruit without a vendor’s license. His family says he didn’t need a license, that the real reason the law brought down the hammer was because he didn’t pay bribes. Whichever version of the story is true, the government tried to wring money from him that he didn’t have.
I don’t know what his politics were, but the complaint that drove him over the edge was hardly based in radical Islam. His complaint was libertarian, frankly, though he likely hadn’t heard such an American word.

The city government, in his view, was a corrupt and obnoxious regulatory state that made it hard—well nigh impossible, actually—for him to work and support his family. Thirty percent of the town’s population was and remains unemployed. Enterprising people like Bouazizi who took the initiative to work for themselves were held down by the state. And for what? For not having a license to sell a banana?
Hamdi understands. She was and remains a part of the state, but she understands.
“I believe in the law,” she said, “but it’s unfortunate that my job is the suppression of somebody else’s job. I believe the law should rule, though, so I have to do it. It’s like when a police officer pulls you over for running a red light. You might think, ‘ack, why is he doing this to me,’ but it has to be done because it’s the law. You obey the laws in your country, right? Why shouldn’t it be the same here?”
Much of the country saw her as a villain when the revolution broke out, but she insists she hasn’t a thing to apologize for.
“It’s my job to serve citizens,” she said. “When they go into a café and it’s dirty and unhealthy for customers, it’s my job to confiscate the filthy equipment and order the café to be closed.”
Her self-image was and is an honorable one. She wanted to be a part of order, law, and good government. And she was willing to accept an exploitively low salary in return. How long can a decent and idealistic person serve an arbitrarily repressive regime? She managed for ten years, but the roof still caved in.
“I spend three months and twenty days in jail,” she said, “from December 31st to April 19th. I was jailed on the orders of Ben Ali. I was accused of taking bribes, but I did not break the law. He used every tool he had to make me look like a scapegoat so that people would shut up and stop protesting.”

She strained mightily to keep herself from crying and paused to collect herself. I would have handed her a Kleenex if I had any.
“I was sentenced to five years in prison for extreme violence against citizens,” she said, choking up. “Before Ben Ali left the country, no lawyer would represent me. But after the revolution a lawyer helped free me. So the revolution is a good thing even though I was the first one oppressed by it.”
Post-traumatic stress disorder came next. She couldn’t work all last summer when she got out of jail, but she’s more or less okay now. “I have my old job back,” she said, “though I no longer do field work.”
She doesn’t hate Mohamed Bouazizi, nor does she blame him much for what happened.
“I didn’t know him,” she said. “I never spoke to him before that day. I knew who he was, though, because he always worked in that spot and I’d been tolerating him for a while. It’s unfortunate that he killed himself and that he was poor. He was also an orphan.”

She feels wronged by the powerful, not only by the former regime, but even by the president of the United States.
“I have a grudge against your president,” she said, though I didn’t ask her about him. “Barack Obama mentioned me in a speech. He said I was a cop. He said I slapped Mohamed Bouazizi. He’s a stupid fool for not checking. Americans are great people, but you need to do a better job of checking your information.”
“Well,” I said, “that’s why I’m here. That’s why I wanted to meet you.”
She smiled and nodded. The media got her wrong, but perhaps the history books will treat her more fairly.
The Butcher of Damascus is currently in the fight of his life as an indirect result of something routine she did a year and a half ago. Violent clashes between Sunnis and Alawites are breaking out in Lebanon now as a (very) indirect result of something routine she did a year and a half ago. The suppurating catastrophe in the Levant could suck in the United States just as the war in Libya did. Who knows? It could even widen to Israel and draw in Iran. History is exploding in dangerous and unpredictable ways. All these events can be traced back in a straight line to her encounter with Bouazizi on December 17th, a date she’s sure not to forget.
We all change the course of events by existing in this world, but most presidents can hardly leave marks that are this big. Her own act was a small one, but it lit the fuse.
How must it feel for an ordinary person in a random little town to ignite a revolution, to be made a scapegoat by a dictatorship, to be mentioned in a speech by the president of the United States, to be arrested and jailed for what was at worst a minor infraction, to see her cynical jailer toppled in a revolt, to watch the warden of Egypt toppled in another revolt, to see the Libyan terrorist state bombed by America, to see open war break out in Syria and spill into Lebanon, and to see Mali—an African country that is not even Arab—broken in half as an aftershock of the Libya war? All because she confiscated a fruit vendor’s scale. At least Gavrilo Princip expected something to happen when he shot Ferdinand in Bosnia on the eve of the war.
“A revolution cannot be solely the cause of one person,” she said. “Even though I didn’t really participate in it, I’m proud of the revolution and proud of my country.”
She may not have participated in it, but she sure did precipitate it. Her name is Faida Hamdi and she is Tunisian. She is also Lorenzo’s butterfly, a small soul who flapped her wings and set off storms of tornadoes for thousands of miles in every direction.
Post-script: I need your help with travel expenses. This is the off season in an off year when everything but the air fare is discounted, but I still can’t do this without your assistance. If you haven’t supported me recently (or ever), please help me out. PayPal donations add up to plane tickets, and so do sales of my book In the Wake of the SurgeYou can make a one-time donation through Pay Pal:
Michael Totten
P.O. Box 312
Portland, OR 97207-0312
Many thanks in advance.
If you don’t want to donate, buy my new book!
You can get the Kindle version
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CUVILib v1.2 released [GPGPU » :: GPGPU.org]
TunaCode has released CUVILib v1.2, a library to accelerate imaging and computer vision applications. CUVILib adds acceleration to Imaging applications from Medical, Industrial and Defense domains. It delivers very high performance and supports both CUDA and OpenCL. Modules include color operations (demosaic, conversions, correction etc), linear/non-linear filtering, feature extraction & tracking, motion estimation, image transforms and image statistics.
More information, including a free trial version: http://www.cuvilib.com/
May is Virtual Reality Month at H+ Magazine [H+ Magazine]
Every month at h+ magazine we are going to have a new theme. This month we are going with the theme of virtual reality. While VR was once just a provocative idea for sci-fi visionaries, it is now apparent that we live in an era in which it has become technologically feasible.
How accurate were stories and movies like Johnny Nmemonic and Strange Days? What does virtual reality mean for the development of AI? Is it possible that we will be living in a virtual reality after the Singularity?
We are now looking for writers to submit articles to us on the many issues and concepts related to virtual reality. Whether you wish to discuss new scientific advances related to VR, compare the VR portrayed in sci-fi to the VR of today, or share your theories on what VR means for the future of humanity… we welcome you to send in your thoughts.
We will be publishing our favorite submissions throughout the month. Please send your articles to rachel@hplusmagazine.com.
OK – finally got around to starting the process of refreshing the site… will be all shiny and new soon
current research [Filling the Well]
So, without giving too much away, I’m writing something that takes place in an old mine. Since I live in Colorado, where the early economy was based on stuff dug out of old mines, I decided to take a couple of tours to see what they’re really like. Last week, I was in Cripple Creek, at the Mollie Kathleen Gold Mine, which is cool for a number of reasons, one of which being it was first claimed and owned by a woman, Mollie Kathleen Gortner, which wasn’t often done in those days. The tour is worthwhile, if you ever find yourself in that area. From a research standpoint, it was incredibly useful, because I discovered my own mental pictures of gold and silver mines comes straight out of Hollywood and Indiana Jones movies, and isn’t entirely accurate. As is usually the case, a lot of what I learned won’t go into the story, but having a really good mental image of what the place looks like, what methods were used to tunnel, and what gets left behind will help the story immensely. And I took pictures.
The old sorting house. Cripple Creek is at 9,000 ft altitude, and it was a chilly, foggy day.
This is looking up into a vertical shaft, from which the gold was actually removed (horizontal tunnels were for transport and access).
Copper and iron precipitate on the tunnel wall. The mine’s been out of use long enough, stalactites and stalagmites, thin as wires, are starting to form in some places. Weird and beautiful.
Analysis of proposed changes to the EU PSI Directive [Open Rights Group]
(Report) The European Commission recently presented a proposal for the review of the EU Directive on the reuse of public sector information. Since the original 2003 Directive PSI has moved from a niche commercial sector to a central plank of digital transparency, e-government and open data innovation. Although a clear improvement, the proposed review fell short of unlocking the potential for public sector information to increase transparency, foster innovation, and improve European citizens' lives.
Russia's protest movement shows staying power, despite today's dispersal [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Merkel, Hollande pledge to find common ground on European growth [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Pakistan's price: US to pay $365 million more a year to reopen supply lines [Christian Science Monitor | World]
College rankings: Which countries have the best education systems? [Christian Science Monitor | World]
A new higher education ranking focuses on evaluating quality by countries as a whole, as opposed to specific academic institutions. Universitas 21, an organization of 23 research universities across 15 countries, published its first ranking of countries “which are ‘best’ at providing higher education.” Universitas 21’s report, published by the University of Melbourne in Australia, ranked 48 countries in all. Here are some of their findings:
White, right wing and paranoid is a terrible way to go through life [blog]
Not a week goes by that my news tab doesn't have a few stories on the American survivalist movement, courtesy of the presence of doomsday electromagnetic pulse references in all such pieces. The homespun country paranoids are now firmly in the US entertainment mainstream, notably in newspapers, almost purely because of the semi-success of one of the crummiest television reality series ever, National Geographic's Doomsday Preppers.
inXile Chooses Unity for Wasteland 2 [The Wasteland Chronicles]
We recently announced the choice of Unity as the game engine for Wasteland 2 development. Many of our supporters are curious about why we chose Unity over multiple other options, and whether Unity is able to meet the requirements of the project. In this post I will talk about the factors leading to our decision and how Unity addresses the needs of Wasteland 2.
Before diving into specifics I’d like to take a step back and talk about inXile’s approach to game development. We are decidedly not a technology development company. We are a game development company. We pursue game ideas first and then decide what technology to use to best realize our ambitions for the game design and our business goals. Consequently we have used several different game engines and multiple third party tools and solutions over the past decade.* There is inevitably some engine-level work that we do to tune the engine for the particular game we are making, but we try to make initial choices that minimize that risk factor.
From a lead programmer perspective, my goal is always to enable the designers to most directly implement their vision by providing tools that keep me out of their way. That requires analyzing the game design up front, and with budget and time in mind, deciding what technology I should license and what I should write. I want to license enough and develop enough that the designers have all the tools they need, but without wasting money on overkill solutions, whether licensed or developed.
So along comes Wasteland 2 and we began the familiar yet always unique process of identifying the requirements so we can evaluate game engines and tools that will get the job done most efficiently. The original Wasteland was party-based and turn-based with a top-down POV that relied heavily on text-based story and drama achieved through deep connections and consequences between story and character.
For Wasteland 2, with the help of our Wasteland fans we decided to keep the focus on story and character, retaining the party-based and turn-based mechanics. The top down POV would remain as well but we would go with a full 3D render to bring it into the modern graphics era. During our Kickstarter we also promised to deliver on Windows, Mac and Linux platforms, and to provide support for the modding community.
With those broad strokes on requirements, we began evaluating engines and tools.
It’s been a great pleasure to feel all the support from fans of the game during Kickstarter, and that has continued during our engine and tools evaluation. Multiple vendors who also supported the Kickstarter came forth with their products, not just to hawk their wares, but to offer genuine encouragement and generous offers of custom support. Among them were prominent engine vendors as well as specialized tool vendors, and of course Obsidian. We necessarily must decline some generous offers as we let the game requirements drive us to single solutions in each category, but we do so with great appreciation for the genuine good will expressed in the offers.
There was a broad enough offering just from the vendors that came to us that we prioritized our evaluations to these products first, hoping to find our solution amongst the ones making generous offers and hence help devote more resources to the game.
Besides the items mentioned above, high on our list of requirements for an engine was ease of use by the artists and level designers for getting assets into the game and editing levels. We are a small team and must be able to work very efficiently. This became a first-pass filter when evaluating engines. Also very important was ease of development for the promised target platforms. Following a close third was amount of support from the vendor and general availability of expertise for crowd-sourcing, contracting or hiring. Putting it all together we came up with a list of engine requirements that looked like this:
The 3D rendering and other game systems at the bottom of the list are very important as we plan to make a great looking game with physics and effects. But these things, at the level we need them, are commonly provided by full-fledged engines, so they end up lower on the list in terms of differentiating factors.
Given the top down POV and camera height required to show a party of characters and enemies, it would be overkill to spend too much of our resources on detailed character models and all the cutting-edge rendering and animation techniques associated with that level of detail.
If we plan well, then we can put just the right amount of resources into modeling and animation so that it looks great from our camera POV without wasting effort on detail that will never be seen. Then we can spend more time working on other enhancing effects that will be noticed from or POV, such as physics for ragdolls and flying debris, and the fire, smoke and particle effects for the gunfire and explosions that cause those ragdolls and flying debris (hopefully of for your enemies and not your party of rangers).
Unity Technologies, with their Unity 3 game engine, was among the vendors that came to us with congratulations, goodwill and offers of support. Their engine stood out as an early front-runner on point 1 of our requirements. The artists loved its support for the native formats of the art tools we already use (3DS Max and Photoshop). I also like its built-in version control for assets and code.
At first it seemed to be missing a leg on point 2 (support for Linux platform), but I knew that we could get source code and therefore could provide the Linux port ourselves. Given that the engine is designed and structured to support multiple platforms, I felt it would not be insurmountable to port it to Linux (or actually hire some outstanding external contractors we’ve used before to do the job). After talking to Unity about this, we found they’ve already been working on a Linux port, so Unity is supplying inXile the linux port alpha source code. InXile will work with Unity in order to port Wasteland 2 to linux.
Where Unity really bowled us over was on point 3. Besides generous support available from Unity staff, the Unity Asset Store is a treasure trove of assets (3D models and code) provided by the large and growing community of Unity users. A recent Unity newsletter announced that the Asset Store customer base has topped 100,000, and the catalog has reached over 3,000 packages! We’ve been able to find all kinds of useful 3D assets and code in the Asset Store ranging in price from cheap to free! Having an organized marketplace like the Asset Store for finding assets and expertise fits right in with our desire to leverage and give back to the community. While we cannot share engine source code changes, we can share script code and components, as well as graphical assets as part of our modding support.
On the Modding front, we always figured we would have to provide custom tools to users, so we didn’t rank modding support high on our list of engine requirements. We’ve also had generous offers from the Wasteland community of coders to help with developing those tools. And yet I think the fact that Unity provides their basic engine/editor for free is a big plus as a starting point for providing the tools necessary for supporting modding of Wasteland 2. And there again, I think the Asset Store will facilitate ongoing collaboration with the community on modding tools that can be offered in the store for free.
Finally, from looking at Unity demos, other games developed with Unity, and conducting our own art and coding tests, we are convinced that Unity delivers on the game system that we need to build Wasteland 2 in style. This includes advanced 3D rendering, pathing, physics (PhysX), multiple options for scripting language, advanced 3D level editor that is customizable with scripted components, and much more.
In summary, Unity hits the sweet spot for us defined by the specific requirements of the Wasteland 2 game design, deployment plan, and the unique circumstances of the development effort which includes community involvement on an ongoing basis.
It has been my experience over decades of game development that no engine or tool is ever perfect for the game you want to build. Any engine or tool will have points of weaker comparison to other options, but you have to evaluate how the whole offering matches up with your resources and skills to make a good choice for the project at hand. Unity is an excellent choice that will allow us to deliver the great game we’ve promised in Wasteland 2.
Best Regards,
John Alvarado
Director of Technology
inXile enterainment
*Technology inXile has used: Snowblind Engine, RadTools, UE3 Engine, Gamebryo Engine, RKEngine, and various smaller third-party tools for game sub systems such as, path-finding, physics, character animation and lip-synching, etc.
We are surrounded by stuff. Physical property, objects we use. Even the poorest of us have some basic stuff: footwear, clothing. Having possessions is one of the defining characteristics of being human—with the questionable exception of a few animal species that have been observed using ad-hoc tools in the wild, nothing else owns anything (and even the tools used by chimpanzees or crows appear to be spur-of-the-moment constructions, abandoned after their immediate use rather than retained for their future potential).
But where do our priorities lie? I am thinking that there are at least two categories: stuff we pay too little attention to, and stuff we prize too highly. And sometimes there are types of stuff that fall to a greater or lesser extent into both sets ...
Stuff we pay too little attention to:
Our beds. (Bruce Sterling flagged this up in a memorable essay a couple of years ago.) You spend roughly a third of our lives sleeping. Your bed is therefore the single piece of furniture you use the most. Nevertheless, because we're unconscious most of the time while we use them, we tend to discount their importance. It's not just a matter of comfort: poor or interrupted sleep is associated with a variety of medical problems, some of them quite serious. (It doesn't get much more serious than tail-ending a truck on your motorway commute to work because you didn't sleep well, does it?) If you're going to spend on household furniture, it should rationally make sense to spend more on your bed and bedding than on everything in your living room put together, 42" 3D LCD TV set included.
Our chairs. I'm not sure I buy into the argument that our chairs are killing us: what's doing the killing is our working practices, which promote long periods of immobility while seated in cramped or poor conditions. But our chairs certainly aren't helping, and if you use one at work, it's the second piece of furniture you use most of the time. Yet all too often office supply departments buy work chairs strictly on price rather than on ergonomics or fitness for purpose. (Memo to self: investigate new office chairs.)
Stuff we pay too much attention to:
Wrist watches. Once upon a time—not so long ago—the capacity to accurately time was an expensive instrumentation problem. A town or village might have a central clock, in a tower; setting it and keeping it running accurately was a technical task. It became critical for trans-oceanic navigation (and if you want to know why and don't know, you could do worse than read this book), leading up to the invention of the portable chronometer in the late 18th and early 19th centuries; for a long period, portable nautical chronometers were used (frequently being carried by hand) to copy time callibration from the Greenwich observatory to other master clocks around London. By the mid-19th century the vast expansion of railway networks made accurate time-keeping a matter of strategic military importance; and the increased availability of horological skills bought the compact pocket-watch, and then the wrist-watch, within the budget of every gentleman.
But today we're surrounded by clocks—fast, accurate, ubiquitous. Clocks are literally everywhere, inside every computer, cellphone, GPS unit. Young folks today, in many cases, don't wear (have never worn) a wrist-watch, because they're never without a pocket phone. The wrist watch is, in fact, comprehensively obsolete.
Despite its obsolescence, the wrist watch has been reincarnated as an article of jewellery. They're everywhere in the shops around us, not merely accurate quartz-controlled watches (or devices controlled by radio-broadcast time signals) but archaic geared analog devices. The user interface—digits or traditional clock-face—is increasingly embelished, while usability takes a back seat to fashion. At the high end, one-of-a-kind individual works by master horologists sell for six-digit prices.
I'm not mocking the cult of the wrist watch as jewellery (I own a couple myself) but I am, nevertheless, puzzled, if not baffled, at the way an obsolete technological niche has been repurposed as a luxury item.
But.
All of this is leading up to me asking a simple question.
Given the technologies we can foresee arriving within the next decade, and the stuff that's already here, let's look forward 30 years. What everyday items in 30 years time will we not be paying enough attention to? Or continuing to use despite their obsolescence, for purposes radically at odds with their original role?
(My money is on: smartphones, in both categories. Maybe laptops in the former. And rooftop solar panels as a social signaling mechanism about the degree to which their owners are concerned for the environment. Bicycles ...? Toilets ...?)
A Cautionary Tale: Our Search for Intelligent Life in the Universe [H+ Magazine]
Science is a curious human enterprise.
Opening up the human condition to new vistas of possibility, enchantment and enlightenment, science has become man’s loyal shadow. Today man lives with the understanding and confidence that our shadow will surprise us at any given moment.
For a very long time, dating back to the ancient Greeks, we have had the profound hope that mankind would one day possess itself in the absolute glare and fullness of self-understanding – as a species. No different than a newborn babe glancing around its newly discovered environment and finding itself awed by the sight of its hands, man, too, gropes his own existence in the anticipation of closing our field of knowledge.
Of course, the expectation was that this holistic knowledge would take place after the initial discovery of some of the principles that govern physical existence. The bio-chemical principles that govern human life, we now realize, are a predictable staple of human knowledge, offering us indispensible certainty in some areas.
As a consequence of the aforementioned certitude, it was also the hope of many people that the fundamental and vital essences that dictate the course of personal, subjective existence would be discovered eventually. The latter would round-off what many believed would be the future science of man. This was the hope of philosophical materialists. An all-consuming and overbearing science of life – better yet – of human existence, is still the darling utopia of positivists in all the variegated and aberrant guises that philosophical materialism embodies today. In some respects, our current dilemma is that it is often difficult to separate genuine scientists from utopian mush heads; Dr. Frankenstein appears to be alive and flourishing.
Man has a keen sense of “smell,” or what is essentially a workaday intuition that is capable of uncovering the essential principles that rule over human affairs, but which we cannot easily pinpoint. If this were not the case – our essential capacity for logical inference – even science, would never occur to us in the first place. Just think of the incapacity of animals to engage in self-reflection. We address scientific problems simply because such concerns occur to us. This is a glaring truth that we easily tend to forget. Call this the anthropic principle or Grace, or what you will. Undoubtedly, man’s development and the history of science go hand in hand.
And, to be candid, to create a rift between these two is tantamount to sending man into a Platonic cave of ignorance, a dangerous abyss that would further dehumanize us. A divorce in this particular marriage can only come as the result of coercion by radicalized and irresponsible agents of mayhem. Here I am referring to our current mania for radical skepticism. Our scientific knowledge has allowed us to enjoy a truer completion as persons than during any previous age.
Ironically, science is also a paradoxical tool that man must learn to respect. We know the allegories of Prometheus and Vulcan, for instance, of Pandora’s Box. These stories warn us about our indiscretions regarding our abuse of reason, the latter which serves as a tool to aide us in our daily lives. The impact of these mythological tales is equivalent to the moral lessons of Aesop’s Fables and the import of maxims on our road to moral/spiritual fulfillment. Let us not be surprised to discover that wisdom literature has always made human indiscretion a central focus of its teaching. Stoic philosophy, for instance, is a logical offshoot of this.
Realistically, though, we can assert with certainty that we know in the first decade of the twenty first century whatever it is that we are capable of knowing at the moment. This is a paradox, a tautology, even. Parmenides said it best when he asserted that we know Being, and not non-Being. How else are we to point out the obvious?
What would constitute total, engulfing knowledge? How can finite entities know the infinite? If we were to consider the knowledge that we have reaped from science and philosophy in terms of monetary value, then, clearly our time is richer than any prior age. The average person today is privy to the inner principles of such a complex array of human endeavors that one cannot help but marvel at how easy it all now seems. Too easy, perhaps? Science has given us unprecedented control over our zest for utility.
Disclaimer: This essay is not yet another “thought experiment” as such exercises are so en vogue today. Neither is this an epistemological game of semantic calisthenics. I can’t imagine the value of such writing, except to serve as a hallucinogen that delivers certain academics into a maniacal frenzy that is fueled by their own blinding self-importance.
What about Extraterrestrials?
Let us think about extraterrestrials.
Today it is not inconceivable to imagine a race of extraterrestrials that, like brilliant computers, go gallivanting about the universe with the same finesse, capacity for self-knowledge, and manners as alligators in a wetland. The technical know-how and capabilities that this possible race of outer-space entities would need to possess in order to traverse the depths of space would have to be colossal – by anyone’s standards. Let there be no doubt about the latter. After all, I am suggesting traveling through portions of the galaxy – unthinkable astronomical units, at least judging by our best calculations – in the span of time that it takes us to digest our food and begin to feel hungry again. Our visitors may have discovered wormholes that serve as their most efficient route to reach us.
What could such deep-space wiz entities be able to teach us? Here, I am not concerned with their moral composition, even if we could get a sense of this. For the time being, I am stressing only the epistemological and scientific component of their knowledge. What I have in mind is artificial intelligence. After all, this is what we think of when we think about communicating with extraterrestrials, right? Most people are of the opinion that such beings would be scientifically superior to us. The implications of that realization impress us. The nature of their voyage to Earth would already be proof enough of their astounding technological superiority
There are perhaps several possible ways that we can come to terms with this important question. This is an interesting and telling angle to address given that contact between humans and intelligent extraterrestrials is only a matter of time. In an age like ours that is fascinated by “models,” then, let us reluctantly call the following suggestions possible models. However, I only mean for these models to serve as the speculative fulcrum that anchors our questions. Let us concentrate our energy on three possible models.
Extraterrestrials as Mere Computing Machines
One of these models would have us come face to face with a kind of entity that, like a computer, is merely a disembodied brain, even though not quite fitting our current understanding of the nature of computing machines. This is a useful metaphor, however, because if a computer ever achieves self-consciousness, then we would have to assert that its hardware would comprise the totality of its body. This new turn of events would naturally constitute a dualism much as Descartes’ res extensa and res cogitans. This is the kind of hairsplitting that has made careers for artificial intelligence people and analytic philosophers. I will leave this narrow thought experiment to them – the experts. Instead, my concern in this matter is much more pressing and existentially vital.
It is conceivable, hence, that these beings might be nothing more than machines. They may very well be computing devices that lack all semblance of an inner dimension, as we humans possess. For instance, this condition would allow them to travel great distances without having to be concerned with the effects that interstellar travel would take on humans. Having no emotional ties to family, friends or home life, they would simply take in the information supplied to them and process it, much as any computing device performs its function day after day. We can imagine these entities as being machines that do not know themselves. Existential anxiety is totally out of the question for such entities. This is precisely what processing machines do. Self-awareness is not part of the make-up of mechanical contraptions.
Lacking an internal dimension, or what is the ability for self-knowledge, our hypothetical extraterrestrials would be no more than highly rational animals, or something akin to trees that compute. We can also refer to these entities as sophisticated cosmic appliances. Yet in no way can it be said that these entities do not make use of a highly advanced science. This is their stronghold. This is the main point that I am trying to convey. Science for them would simply be taken for granted, it would be a given, for this is all they know. These extraterrestrials would resemble the Houyhnhms in Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels. Somewhat like the Houyhnhms who do not possess a word for “lie,” our aliens would be incapable of metaphysical or existential reflection. Instead, they are simple machines that respond to electronic stimuli.
We cannot forget that science begins with the basic conditions set forth by simple observation. Without the capacity for observation, experimentation and verification, for instance, scientific inquiry could never take place. This is another one of those gargantuan points that those who ingratiate themselves with the naive notion that computers “think,” conveniently forget. Science may be born of awe and wonder, a challenge to nature, or the love of solving difficult problems. These, as well as several other reasons can be offered as the necessary impetus for someone to become taken in by science. However, it is simple observation that must first inform all of these reasons.
We can imagine this first model of extraterrestrials as being completely incapable of achieving self-knowledge – auto-knosis. This is a major difference between us and our alien visitors. Man does not take himself or science for granted, respectively. Human life is replete with existential crises that quickly bear this out. Science requires tremendous work, and work is a form of life-as-resistance that humans are presented with by the contingencies of human reality. Hesiod reminds us of the importance of work to human life in Works and Days.
Perhaps we also ought to be reminded of the degree of effort and perspicuity that all cultural or scientific enterprise requires. And yet, the relevance and truth of the aforementioned does not have to be necessarily construed as a self-conscious activity. A neurosurgeon hardly has time to become philosophical during surgery. During an operation the doctor is merely taken up with the execution of a practical task. We can imagine, however, that some time afterwards or prior to an operation, some level of reflection is necessary or comes about as a result. Keeping a clear head about us is a requirement for undertaking any high-level psychical exercise. This is the kind of awe and wonder that best fuels humanism in the Renaissance, for instance. But, isn’t this also what the child does when it first discovers its hands?
Science is indeed a curious human undertaking.
We reap the practical benefits of science mostly in the form of what the Spanish philosopher, Jose Ortega y Gasset, has called “technicism.” In many respects, it is creature comforts that we desire today, and what we have come to expect from science. We can conceive of science in two ways, though: science as originating in pure reason – the discipline that uncovers the operative principles of nature – and science as utility, or what is essentially a whore who satisfies our self-indulgent pleasures.
These extraterrestrials might be superb scientists, that is, computing machines that practice an untold degree of rigor in their capacity for pure reason. Pure reason for us, too, is the vehicle that uncovers the constants of nature. Pure reason is all that our visitors would know. Astro-physics, biology and chemistry – the hard sciences – serve us well in their capacity to extract the blueprints of the universe.
We can create as many fashionable and politically expedient theories as we have time to indulge in, as has been the case in the humanities since the 1960s. Yet the reality remains that the physical universe works in objective ways that we either come to understand or ignore. Turning our back on these principles always makes us pay a gigantic price, though.
We currently embrace an aggressive radical ideological form of witchcraft that is intent on delivering us to a moral, cultural and scientific abyss. This radical ideology neither understands science, nor does it originate in good will. Its sinister motives originate in resentment towards the constants of nature. These agents of mayhem have a beef with the human condition being what it is. Radical ideologues have done tremendous damage to man’s ability to accept the limitations of human nature. Genuine understanding is never the goal of the maladroit mind who engages in such sophomoric and malignant rhetoric.
The discovery of form by ancient Greek philosophers allowed us to realize that man possesses a one-to-one correlation with the underpinning principles of the universe. It is not necessary for us to like this truism. However, objectivity can indeed keep us from destroying ourselves as individuals and as a species. This means that the human mind is created in such a way as to be capable of making sense of at least a portion of transcendent reality. This fundamental ability is what makes us capable of attaining knowledge. My point is not so much to reiterate this basic truth, but rather to remind us of how easy it is to forget it.
When we think of intelligent life in outer space, we also tend to display a quasi- childish naiveté that, in many respects, literally begs the question as to the kind of beings that we hope to encounter one day. We have great reverence for intelligence as the defining attribute of the human species. This is a glaring sign that ours is a physicalist age, a milieu dominated by reductionist philosophical materialism. While we stomp on genuine wisdom and ridicule those who possess it, we are taken in by the glare and glamour of what, on closer inspection, is not intelligence at all, but rather crafty affectation. This reflects our expectations of what we imagine extraterrestrials to be like.
We expect that when we eventually make contact with visitors from outer space they will be profoundly intelligent beings. What this means in the minds of many is that extraterrestrials must resemble some form of artificial intelligence. We expect that these beings will be supremely intelligent, and that therefore we will benefit immensely from their company. Of course, it rarely dawns on us that they may also be cosmic pirates that come to steal our resources and destroy whatever they cannot take with them, much like a computer virus that contaminates other computing systems.
Today we love to concern ourselves with I.Q., the extravagantly eccentric exploits of members of Mensa, gifted classes for children, and the laughable behavior of the absent minded professor who forgets where he lives. We marvel at the expediency of computer geeks and other highly intelligent “nerds.” Simply stated, we bow before the altar of intelligence. Besides the ardent respect and admiration that people have for wealth or physical beauty, intelligence is undoubtedly the most feared and revered human trait. We have a fascination with gratuitous and sportive counter-argumentation, much of which eventually proves to be no more than the caprice of people who apparently never left the warm and secure comfort of the graduate seminar.
It is not difficult to understand why we have this disproportionate regard for raw intelligence, especially in the manner that we encounter it in the media and popular culture. Our allegiance to intelligence, lamentably, is completely divorced from all vital conditions. While genuine intelligence is a tool that is used in the service of life, we instead, conceive it as the work of raw brain power. It is naïve to suggest that the brain is what differentiates us from machines, and from each other. To talk about wisdom today seems a moot point in the mind of some people. The reductionist critique of mind presented by materialists will have us believe that we are nothing more than neurons, synapses, and living tissue; biological machines.
We have convinced ourselves that we are merely a conglomeration of membranes that conveniently happen to culminate in consciousness and self-knowledge. In an insipid age that is currently witnessing a heretofore untold vacuum of genuine intelligence, we brag that personhood is merely an illusory effect of brain. The triumph of medical materialism undermines our understanding of the complexity that we have set out to explain in the first place. Feeling highly satisfied in having reduced human life to its atomic structure, some now doubt whether man can live on science alone. Our aberrant and massive societal dysfunctionality is a testament to this doubt. Undoubtedly, ideas have measurable consequences, and bad ideas devastating ones. This will be the legacy of man in the twenty-first century. As much as man needs certainty to flourish, we are also marked by our existential inquietude.
How many people today would venture to realize that we are living in the entrails of a dystopian science-fiction novel?
We hear much talk about intelligent life in outer space. But just what exactly can this mean? So, we have great reverence for intelligence, and this is what we seek and expect to find in our eventual meeting with extraterrestrials. Here we are reminded of that old dictum of paying close attention to what we hope for. If our highly intelligent visitors from outer space bring with them great scientific knowledge – let’s say – the principles of anti-gravity, we would, no doubt, be eternally grateful. But this is only one potential outcome of our encounter with extraterrestrials.
Let us imagine that after our initial meeting with our space visitors, we build vehicles that travel at tremendous speeds and make as loud a sound as a canary taking its last breath. How happy would we be then? The artificial intelligence community will be ecstatic. With all of our most immediate questions seemingly answered, we would then busy ourselves in the implementation of our newly found knowledge to demonstrate that man is nothing more than the sum total of a bio-chemical process. Scientists would act like children at a birthday party, happy to be the center of attention. And then, what?
Extraterrestrials that Possess a Moral Imagination
Another possible scenario that we might want to entertain concerning our visitors would have them be as equally intelligent, in terms of the science that they share with us, but also possessing an indelible and superb moral sense. Extraterrestrials in our second model would convey a profound sense of awe, wonder, and a heightened ability to embrace the sublime. Knowledge, for these entities, would be valuable as a service for life. Knowledge is valuable for these beings because it allows them to have great control over themselves. These beings would possess an unprecedented capacity for self-awareness and self-knowledge, the likes of which we have never witnessed on our planet. This would be the form of “higher consciousness” that some members of our species have envisioned for a long time. This kind of extraterrestrial might practice such a profound sense of personal autonomy that they cannot conceive of social-political categories. These entities have total control of their lives. They are never a burden to others. This would undoubtedly baffle our scientists as well as devastate and demoralize our social scientists.
In addition, let us imagine that our visitors are not slaves of their scientific prowess. Science serves to round-out metaphysical and existential realities that affect their intergalactic travel. This might just prove to be the greatest scientific scandal in the history of man: just when we receive the news that we are not alone in the universe, only then do we discover that our space neighbors all possess abundant scientific knowledge that heightens their sense of moral, spiritual and religious sensibility.
These entities are scientific minded insofar as they know the principles that make up their existence. They understand that reality is not relative, and thus never violate any of its objective principles. Part of their understanding, we discover, comes via intuition. This further scandalizes us, because a long time ago, our gurus discarded such a possibility. Like a cat pursuing a mouse, these entities know exactly what “holes” they can get through. In addition, our visitors from outer space are rather happy beings. We discover that part of their happiness is due to their vital sense of discretion in the choices they make. These entities do possess self-knowledge.
Finding ourselves at odds with this awkward and deflating development, we quickly lose interest in these comical entities on which we had placed such high stock. Furthermore, having given up our poetic sensibility many decades prior to this encounter, we are hardly impressed by the uses that these extraterrestrials have for science. Their combination of scientific and practical knowledge, intuition and wisdom make these entities cosmic freaks in our eyes. Some people among us come to hate these entities for their apolitical approach to existence. The outer space visitors, for their part, look at us as spoiled children whose mere aim in life is to subvert the natural order in such a way as to satisfy our every irrational desire and whim. Our expectations of our cosmic visitors never pan out. Things quickly turn sour. The aliens, too, quickly become bored by us.
When the visitors to our planet explain to us in great detail the transcendent metaphysical principles by which they live, we find little of pressing value in that revelation. The meeting is ultimately deemed a failure by those who expected epistemological fireworks from the visitors. More importantly, besides having a deep respect for science, our outer space visitors display a profound moral sense. They are more interested in ontology than epistemology. The visitors tell us about the order and logos of the universe, and what each individual’s role is in the great scheme of things. While remaining discreet, they also offer us ample insight into our personal limitations, and how we must come to accept these. We are horrified to hear this, and some among us even try to crush the head of the aliens to keep them from revealing more of what they know of the state of nature.
Many of our political leaders tell the outer space visitors that we no longer have a need on our planet for moralizing, and that that stage of our development came to an end a long time ago. The aliens are told that if they want to remain welcome on our planet, they can only talk about how to perfect man through social-political avenues. Hearing this, the aliens become disenchanted with us. They tell us that they do not understand what is being asked of them. We are aghast that the aliens should resemble our moral/spiritual condition sometime prior to the twentieth century. The aliens are a threat to those people who will have nothing to do with human beings as autonomous persons.
Consequently, many come to view the aliens as threatening to our newly found liberation from the existential weight of our former selves. We then explain to them that we are bored by anything resembling transcendence and the sublime. These entities tell us that they are sorry for the inconvenience they have cost us, and leave our planet disappointed. Our meeting with the aliens ends with both sides wanting nothing to do with the other.
As they are escorted to their spacecrafts, they confide that they are baffled by us. They tell us that they have monitored our species for the last five-hundred years, and they thought we resembled them. This is what prompted them to visit our planet. One of them asks: “Are all humans like your social-political leaders?” No one dares to answer them for fear of political reprisal. Then, laughter is heard coming from inside their ships as they close the hatches. They recognize their bad judgment in thinking that humans had something to learn from their visit.
Autonomous Extraterrestrials that Possess a Good Will
A third possibility we might conceive in meeting with extraterrestrials is even more disheartening in lieu of the disappointment brought on by the second model. Imagine that our extraterrestrial visitors were, in a paradoxical way sort of way – remember our aim here is not to split hairs – hardly scientific at all. Imagine that they have not come from too far away, relatively speaking, and only then, after great strife and cost to their spiritual and emotional wellbeing. In other words, rather than being scientific whiz entities, they have all-but-willed themselves to leave their planet in search for life in outer space. These entities willed themselves to reach our planet, given that their technological expertise is not much greater than ours. They are excited by the prospect of making contact with other beings.
Just imagine the uproar that such a possibility will have on our own scientific establishment. Something akin to a ragtag group of cosmic wayfaring, friendly Socrates’, our visitors would crush all our illusions about the great beyond.
We have always had wise men among us. We might even have some today. However, there can be no doubt that wisdom has given way to expediency. Unfortunately, many people will miss the point of having the latter kind of extraterrestrials visit us in the first place. Consider that after investing untold material resources and emotional energy, we came to expect that any visitors from outer space must of necessity be superior beings that have much by way of technology to teach us. We created the SETI Project in the hope of attracting signals from outer space. Our radio telescopes are eagerly pointed to areas of the sky that we believe are possible reservoirs of intelligent life.
This disappointment that I have alluded to does not even take into account the reaction of the “average” man on the street. With the advanced state of atrophied imagination and the dearth of moral/spiritual sensibility that we are currently experiencing, the reaction of average citizens would be predictable. “Why spend so much money on something so pointless like space exploration,” many will be heard saying. Others will be upset that this same money is not being used to further the needs of the welfare state.
The Apollo missions bear out this truth quite clearly. The rapid development of rocketry after Goddard’s earliest rocket, and the subsequent advent of the German V-2, is a major humanistic feat. Von Braun’s multi-stage rockets, post his defection to the United States after WWII, is no less than a majestic engineering achievement. The Apollo missions took us on flights of fancy that man had never witnessed. The success of Apollo 8 on its Lunar orbit and return to Earth, in December 1968, solidified our understanding that landing on the Moon was a real possibility. Apollo 11 touching down on the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, was perhaps man’s greatest achievement.
The excitement and promise of space exploration has always been important to people who cultivate the imagination and a profound sense of the sublime. This has been the case dating back to ancient civilizations. Yet by the time that Apollo 17 landed on the Moon, on December 11, 1972, NASA couldn’t persuade the three major television networks to carry the event live. This is a sorry indictment of our time. News of the lunar landing in 1972 was no longer front page news. Our penchant for awe and wonder has further eroded since then. Our cynicism is now legion, as all aspects of human existence have been politicized by radical ideologues.
This reminds me of Swift’s “A Modest Proposal.” What is so endearing about that satirical work is precisely its ability to make us doubt the extent of its seriousness. Should we be angry with its author? Or, should we perhaps try to understand the point that he is making in that satire? Either way, the work places us in the uncomfortable position of having to confront an unsavory aspect of human reality. Most importantly, “A Modest Proposal” allow us to take the pulse of our knowledge of reality.
Aliens, as I have described them in the third model, may appear to us as burlesque, laughing spirits, much like the attendees of a convention of interstellar Aristophanes’. We are puzzled at the fact that these amusing visitors from outer space do not take their science or themselves too seriously. Content to cherish their own existence, our visiting aliens, we are shocked to realize, have very little to offer us except friendship and their joy for life. “If we wanted inspiration,” some of our virulent critics scuff, “we would take up poetry…or religion.”
What would be our relationship with the third model of visitors to our planet? After our initial conversations with them, we then leave them to their own devices – assuming that they pay us in order to enter our airspace, and do not disrupt our radio frequencies. “Grotesque cosmic anomalies,” some people will come to call them. Others will see them as grandfatherly figures that mean no harm and that we should not take too seriously. Others will be angry. Angry, because they cannot understand or trust the motives of the aliens in coming to visit us. This means the end of our romance with extraterrestrials.
Some people will demand that the visitors give us their scientific knowledge, and not bother us with moral/spiritual fodder. To these people, the aliens will merely be a curiosity, a circus act, and finally, a nuisance. They will be of the opinion that the aliens are little more than dilettantes that can’t even understand where they went right regarding their technology. These aliens will be viewed as cosmic bumblers.
The meeting between us and the second and third type of alien visitors cannot develop further, and cannot be more fruitful given the debilitating, advanced stage of our philosophical materialism. The aliens confine in us that, “Humans have a very limited vision.” Why should we be surprised of this human trait so late in human history? The extraterrestrials in our first model would be useful to us but only as computing machines.
Remember Prometheus and the newly discovered tool that he gave to mortals? “A great gift to man,” he imagined. Some people stand under falling boulders and don’t have the sense to get out of the way. Others are surprised that humans cannot breathe under water.
It remains true that a rose by any other name is still a rose. We have placed the rose under a microscope, figured out the atomic nature of that colorful flower, and even tried to reproduce it in our laboratories. After centuries of deciphering the essence of the rose, it is those who possess a poetic sensibility who continue to be the authority in this matter. Reality is like a beast of burden – always mulish. Truth, as this informs the human condition, can never be blackmailed or muscled into agreeing with every passing human impulse. As I have already alluded to, splitting hairs is not a substitute for genuine understanding and knowledge.
Just recently scientist discovered a fifth planet in a nearby solar system that they believe resembles Earth. The star is named 55Cancri and is said to be about 41 light years from Earth. This is not bad, when understood in astronomical units. The planet is said to resemble Saturn in composition and appearance, and is about 45 times more massive than Earth. Could this planet harbor intelligent life? It is just a matter of time before we discover one that does. The interesting philosophical question, as I see it, remains: What will be the status of our imagination and regard for the sublime at such a time? Those who have a firm grasp of this concern will be able to effectively predict our reaction to this greatest of all human discoveries to come. At this point in human history, we shouldn’t hold our breath regarding our collective reaction to such a discovery.
The visitors in our third model continue to come and go as they please. We, on the other hand, continue to sharpen our scientific tools and re-double our efforts to find intelligent life in outer space. The entire situation has turned out to be a cosmic comedy. The aliens recognize their lack of usefulness to us, and thus learn to keep to themselves. And so, the great anticipation of this historical meeting turns out to be a bust, a first date that is quickly terminated.
After a while the aliens become disenchanted with us. Thinking that they had something to teach us, they now begin to see themselves as defeated. At first they clamp up, no longer interested in communicating with us. As time passes, the aliens are completely ignored. Feeling ridiculed and isolated, they find no other recourse but to return home. They do so laughing, though. They pity us. They even worry if their sputtering machines are up to the task of their return trip home. They tell us that they respect their machines as useful tools. That is all that machines are to them. They do not take their science for granted, but neither have they become enslaved by it. Their greatest asset is their will to live joyously.
As the aliens travel through intergalactic space, they remain vigilant of their effort to survive. “Existence in the cosmos,” they signal back to us, “is defined by perpetual strife and self-knowledge.”
Of course, we can think of several other models to explore; the three that I have suggested merely emphasize one limited angle of human psychology and several of its moral/spiritual correlates.
Dr. Pedro Blas Gonzalez is a Professor of Philosophy at Barry University in Miami, Florida. He is also the author of 6 books including Philosophical Perspectives on Cinema, Dreaming in the Cathedral, and Ortega’s the ‘Revolt of the Masses’ and the Triumph of the New Man.
Palestinians mark Nakba Day with slingshots, despite calls for calm [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Bomb in Colombian capital taints first day of Colombia-US free trade agreement [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Majority of Mexicans support military leading fight against cartels [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Greece calls for new election after attempts at forming new government fail [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Rebekah Brooks charged in News Corp phone-hacking scandal (+video) [Christian Science Monitor | World]
As Okinawa marks 40 years of postwar sovereignty, US bases still an irritant [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Two propaganda flops in less than two weeks: Is Beijing losing its touch? [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Hollande's plane struck by lightning en route to Germany to meet Merkel (+video) [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Iran nuclear talks: negotiators cite progress ahead of Baghdad meeting [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Questions After the First U.S. Bank Takeover by a Chinese State-Controlled Company [blog]
By Charles Wolf, Jr., Brian Chow, Gregory Jones, and Scott Harold Last week (May 10), the Federal Reserve approved an application from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to buy up to 80 percent of the U.S. subsidiary of the Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia, which operates 13 branches in New York and California. This transaction prompts many questions. Did or should the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States play a role in the approval process for this case or market sector? What factors have been or should be considered in the approval deliberation? Whatever the answers, the ICBC precedent is likely to inspire many followers. Yet we have doubts about whether the United States has the appropriate framework to analyze them, and ultimately approve or reject them. Last year we published a report at RAND examining these and other issues, including indications of the sectors and types of companies China is likely to seek to acquire in the U.S., as well as in Europe, and the rest of the world. We found that in the evolving global economy, China's large and growing financial resources will strengthen its ability to acquire companies and resources abroad. When it comes to the U.S., the goal for both countries should be to promote cross-country investments and better Sino-U.S. relations, while minimizing outcomes that might involve losses to either. While the Foreign Investment and National Security Act of 2007 broadened the definition of national security to include homeland security, critical infrastructure, and critical resources and materials, national security should be construed more broadly to encompass its economic dimension as well. Furthermore, in considering foreign application to acquire U.S. companies, the United States needs to consider both risks as well as benefits in both defense and economic dimensions. In our study, we proposed a modified decision-tree methodology to assess applications, to mitigate risk and enhance benefit, and to arrive at a balance between risks and benefits. While acknowledging the broad U.S. policy of striving for open, competitive, and nondiscriminatory trade and investment transactions, we suggest that, with reciprocal understanding and mutual respect by China and the U.S. for their differing interests, they can achieve their objectives for foreign investments while safeguarding their national interests. Charles Wolf, Jr. is senior economic adviser and corporate fellow in international economics, Brian Chow is senior physical scientist, Gregory Jones is adjunct senior defense policy analyst, and Scott Harold is associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution.
The BBC’s guide to developing mobile games [SoftTalk - multicore and parallel programming]
Whether you’re an Android developer or a PC developer, here’s a nice short film (about 3.5 minutes), looking at how to break into the games industry, including interviews with some successful app studios and some student developers. There were a couple of things that struck me about this. Firstly, it says there are 329 games [...]
Eventual Futures [Overcoming Bias]
I’ve noticed that recommendations for action based on a vision of the future are based on an idea that something must “eventually” occur. For example, eventually:
The common pattern: project forward a current trend to an extreme, while assuming other things don’t change much, and then recommend an action which might make sense if this extreme change were to happen all at once soon.
This is usually a mistake. The trend may not continue indefinitely. Or, by the time a projected extreme is reached, other changes may have changed the appropriate response. Or, the best response may be to do nothing for a long time, until closer to big consequences. Or, the best response may be to do nothing, ever – not all negative changes can be profitably resisted.
It is just not enough to suspect that an extreme will be reached eventually – you usually need a good reason to think it will happen soon, and and that you know a robust way to address it. In far mode it often feels like the far future is clearly visible, and that few obstacles stand in the way of planning paths to achieve far ends. But in fact, the world is much messier than far mode is willing to admit.
Forecast for Tunisia [Michael J. Totten's blog]
My latest piece appears in Tablet magazine.
It’s no longer news that the Arab Spring has become unseasonably chilly. The Syrian revolution began as a nonviolent protest movement but is rapidly degenerating into a civil war. Libya is cracking up into a fragmented state controlled by hostile militias. And Egypt is ruled by the same Nasserist military dictatorship that seized power in 1952. (If the army there does step aside, don’t get excited: In last year’s election, two-thirds of Egyptians voted for Islamists—and a third of those chose the totalitarian Salafists, the ideological brethren of Osama Bin Laden.)
For a dash of optimism, though, one could do worse than to look to Libya’s North African neighbor to the west: Tunisia, the country actually responsible for kicking off this season of Arab revolutions. And if current trends in the region persist, it may be the only country of the Arab Spring that doesn’t slip back into winter.
It all started in the economically depressed town of Sidi Bouzid in December 2010, when a fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi poured gasoline over his head and set himself on fire in front of city hall. Too cash-strapped to purchase a license, he plunged into despair when a municipal employee confiscated his scale and made it all but impossible for him to eke out even the meagerest living. Bouazizi’s suicide galvanized the locals into an uprising that swept across the countryside and eventually reached the capital, Tunis, where, just four weeks later, it toppled the crooked and authoritarian regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Months of precarious instability followed, but hopes were raised, too. Interim leader Fouad Mebazaa promised “a better political life which will include democracy, plurality, and active participation for all the children of Tunis.” Genuinely free and fair elections were held in October 2011.
As in Egypt, more than 100 political parties stood for election. Also as in Egypt, the Islamists were the best organized. Ennahda, a party led by radical activist Rached Ghannouchi, who spent 23 years in exile in Britain, won 42 percent of the vote.
For secular democrats, the results were both disheartening and encouraging. Disheartening because even though Ennahda ran on a relatively moderate platform—emphasizing jobs and religious freedom rather than political Islam—at the end of the day, the party’s leaders are Islamists, and they won more votes than anyone else. But it was also encouraging because they won less than half the votes and were forced into a coalition government with secular liberal parties.
Though the current government is temporary, it has the critical task of writing the new constitution. And last month, Ennahda’s leaders formally announced that they would not push for Islamic law, or Sharia, to be cited as even a source—let alone the source—of legislation in the new constitution.
This is an enormous step for an avowedly Islamist party, but we’ll see if it’s sincere. Are Tunisia’s Islamists capable of long-term moderation and power-sharing? Or are they simply being shrewd—saying the right things in order to bide their time until next year’s election, when they can consolidate more power? The answer will determine if Tunisia will actually transition to a liberal democracy or if theocracy is boiling slowly.
“Every Islamist in the world has the same ambition—the Islamization of the society,” I was told by Rami Sghayier, a young activist who works with Amnesty International. “A moderate doesn’t mind if it takes 10 or 20 years. An extremist wants it now. That’s the difference.”
New ORG report reveals UK mobile Internet censorship [Open Rights Group]
(Press Release) Open Rights Group and LSE Media Policy Project launched a new report, 'Mobile Internet censorship: w…
Robot Sex and Companionship [H+ Magazine]
The currents of the internet work in odd ways; this past week the theme seems to be robot sex. Since I have had it on the brain, I figure I will contribute to the trendiness and throw my own 2c in. (Just as a note, I will indicate any link that is explicitly Not Safe For Work). I am going to blur the line a bit between just discussing robot sex and discussing robot companionship, a somewhat more involved relationship than the purely physical.
It seems to me there are essentially three main questions when it comes to human-robot sex. First, can we build a machine that anyone would want to have sex with? Second, how “intelligent” should that machine be? Third, is this just a fetish for weirdoes?
Technical Feasibility:
Not only can we build robots that people want to have sex with; we already have.
Certainly, there are all manner of devices people use for sexual pleasure, but I want to focus on machines more sophisticated than your average vibrator.
The aptly titled fuckingmachines.com (NSFW) is a pornographic site founded in 2000 that features videos and pictures of women having sex with robots that are not particularly technically advanced, and certainly not on the level of a sophisticated android sex-bot. Think battle bots for the bedroom. Despite the lack of sophistication, these are industrial pieces of hardware. For the home user, somewhat tamed versions of machines built for pleasure are available from mainstream websites like this “Love Glider Sex Machine” from Amazon.com (NSFW).
Andydroids.com (NSFW) has a number of both male and female android dolls for purchase. Although the website is not well constructed, this page (NSFW) seems to show various servos, circuit boards, and otherwise fairly advanced robotics working together to create a somewhat lifelike robot. Less sophisticated, but perhaps more lifelike, are Real Dolls (NSFW), in production since 1996. Real Dolls are as close as I have seen to human-looking sex bots, but are still a long way from indistinguishable from human.
The most realistic robot that I have yet seen (though it is not designed specifically for sex) is Geminoid F from Osaka University’s Professor Hiroshi Ishigurou. This robot can smile, talk, move, and appears very lifelike. According to this video, she even has “basic emotions and behaviors” programmed in. The biggest problems that I can see from the demonstration videos are that (1) the robot might be firmly entrenched in the “uncanny valley” (2) her movements are still a little jerky, and (3) her software is highly advanced, but hardly lifelike.
The uncanny valley is a hypothesis that argues that as robots become more human-like a human observer’s emotional response becomes more positive and empathetic. However, at some point, the robot is –too- lifelike, and a feeling of revulsion quickly replaces the positive and empathetic emotional response. If the robot becomes yet more lifelike, to the point of being indistinguishable from a human, the human observer’s emotional response will again become positive and empathic. Thus, to have a sex bot that anyone would actually want to have sex with, the robot is going to have to be on one side or the other of the uncanny valley; either not particularly lifelike, or extremely lifelike. For a robot that is expected to be more than a sex toy (say, for someone that a human might want to be partnered with) the robot would have to be extremely advanced and nearly indistinguishable from a human being.
Jerky movements can be compensated for by ever-better servos and other methods of movement. Popular Science, for instance, recently reported on Nobuhiro Takahashi and the University of Electro-Communications’ new robotic butt that responds to “slaps, caresses, and finger pokes.”
The video is a little creepy, but shows the sort of fine ‘muscle’ movement that Geminoid F lacks; movement that could be very useful in other parts of the robot as well.
ExtremeTech posted an article about Kissenger, a telepresence robot designed to allow two humans to kiss across great distances through a robot. Although this is hardly more advanced than previous robots, it does suggest that humans are willing to at least attempt to transmit an emotional connection through a robot. In addition, as ET points out, how much of a stretch is it from kissing a robot with another human on the other side to kissing a robot controlled by an A.I.?
This ScienceDaily article highlights synthetic skin that could, one day, allow a robot to feel. Even if we assume that there is no qualia (roughly: experiential consciousness) behind a robot feeling, all the data streams involved in transmitting some kind of feeling could be very useful for triggering micro-movements in various parts of the skin, perhaps even including subtle changes like goose bumps, etc.
Technically, I think we are about there. Some more materials development (in particular a temperature regulation system and a lubrication system would be two huge upgrades that I have not seen) some finer muscle control, and some more realistic design and robots might just climb out of the uncanny valley. However, what about the software side of the robot?
A.I. and Sex-Bots:
The next question is how much artificial intelligence a robot companion ought to have.
On one end of the scale, we have Real Dolls – essentially human-looking mannequins without any sort of robotics or artificial intelligence. These sorts of sex-bots are fine as far as they go for purely physical entertainment, but most people probably will not develop any emotional connection to their toys (especially if they hang their Real Doll by the “removable neck bolt” as their FAQ suggests.)
Towards the middle of the scale, and likely right at the edge of our current capability, we have Geminoid F; a robot with basic emotional scales programmed in that can spontaneously create new reactions to situations. The jerky physical movement is mimicked by the jerky emotional reactions; they are broadly appropriate, but are not exactly finely tuned enough to seem human.
Ideally, it seems like the perfect robot companion ought to have emotions that at least mimic human emotions very well; the ability to smile, wink, and bite their lip at just the right time and have something that at least seems plausibly like a twinkle in their eye. Perhaps complex human-based personality profiles could be uploaded that allow the robot to seem very much like a human being, albeit with customizable settings for each individual user to account for differing tastes. Maybe the robot could exhibit this personality outside of the bedroom as well; transforming a sex robot into something more like a personal companion or even a partner.
However, it seems important to limit both sex robots and companion robots to non-conscious levels of intelligence. Most importantly, because I think that cognitive criteria are the defining hallmarks of a “person,” and that a robot with actual consciousness ought to be considered a person. If we think it is wrong to keep people for sex toys (and we certainly do) then I cannot see the same behavior being justifiable for conscious robots.
However, even outside of the moral personhood angle, a conscious robot would have something like free will, or at least clearly articulable preferences. If the goal of a sex-robot or companion robot is to have the ideal partner, then we certainly don’t want our robot telling us ‘no’ or ‘I’m not in the mood’ (unless we program that in for some sort of more realistic behavior.) We want to be able to program in our individual desires and preferences which make the robot ideal for each of us, and a robot with free will would presumably be overwriting our preferences with their own fairly often. A robot with true artificial intelligence would not have many advantages over a human partner.
In short, much like the physical problem of the uncanny valley, we want a robot intelligent enough to seem human-like without actually being conscious enough to be a person.
Who Would Want A Sex Robot?
We can dispense with the obvious fairly quickly; probably people with intimacy issues, various kinks and fetishes, and those who just want sex without everything else that often comes with it would be first in line for a very realistic sex-bot. ExtremeTech recently wrote an article about robot prostitutes that argues that robots could take over the prostitution industry (wouldn’t a sex-bot be cheaper over the long run, after all?) in addition to lessening human trafficking, pedophilia, and other sex crimes.
I think, however, a compelling case can be made that more than just the socially awkward and sexually deviant (in the clinical sense) would appreciate a sex-robot. Dick Pelletier recently wrote a piece for IEET where he highlights a number of authors who have argued just that, including tech luminary Ray Kurzweil: “Author Ray Kurzweil says tomorrow’s ‘droids could quickly learn to flesh out our positive feelings, providing an addictive allure almost impossible for us to resist.” Indeed, with ruthless, cunning efficiency a robot with sophisticated enough software could read various biometric signals that humans give off, allowing him or her to customize their personality to the preferences of their human owners that the owner may not even know that they have. Moreover, like any good device, the robot would presumably become more accurate over time, and change as their owner does. This sort of adaptive learning is an ingenious solution to forcing the operator to think of all of their own preferences and program them into their robot companion; something humans have a difficult enough time expressing to each other.
The allure of the perfect seducer / seductress is vast, and not to be underestimated. No matter how fabulous your human partner is, there is bound to be –something- about him or her that is not 100% ideal. Maybe they snore. Maybe they like to cut you off while you are talking. Maybe they just forget to put the toilet seat down. Whatever it is, trivial or serious, there is some way (and, likely, a number of ways) that they are not ideal. Of course, humans overlook these qualities in other humans all the time during relationships; coping with each other’s idiosyncrasies and quirks (which might even become endearing after a while) is largely what human relationships are about, and provide an extra level of intimacy in a relationship. Nevertheless, even if your human partner –is- wonderful and you cannot think of a single thing you would change about them, they are still only one personality.
An interesting implication of robot-companions is that there is little reason why multiple personalities could not be installed within one physical frame, and those personalities could be changeable at will. Maybe you want a sultry professional for an office meeting, a wild party girl for a Halloween party, a tomboy for a Super Bowl party and a quiet intellectual for a lazy Sunday afternoon. Perhaps you want a nice gentleman for dinner, a jock for the pool, and a real alpha-male for bed later. A robot companion can switch effortlessly into different personalities, each tailored to your specific desires. These personalities could even be ported into different physical frames for those who desire a differing physical appearance every now and again.
Beyond the physical and personality advantages, there could be greater emotional security from a companion bot as well. From Dick’s IEET article: “A robot partner would be the perfect mate, never showing boredom or being inattentive, Levy says. You will always be the focus and centerpiece of their existence and you never need worry about their being unfaithful or going astray, because loyalty and being faithful are embedded in their programming.” With a divorce rate hovering somewhere around 50% in the United States, human relationships seem to be the emotional equivalent of a coin flip (and subsequent relationships fare even worse.) Never mind the cost of alimony child support.
In short, I think that with advanced enough A.I. (but not too advanced, per the above) sex or companion robots could very well become the ideal mates for humans. Human-robot relationships could be purely sexual, or they could become more like true companions. Either way, such human-robot interactions do not necessarily mean the end of human-human interactions, or inevitable extinction for lack of reproduction. There are, after all, plenty of children to adopt, and there is little reason to think that the technology involved in creating children will fail to advance as rapidly as other technologies.
We are still a long way from this sort of interaction, but the upsides seem considerable.
John Niman is a J.D. Candidate at the William S. Boyd School of Law at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. He graduated magna cum laude from UNLV, earning his B.A. in philosophy with a minor in business law.
Spammers ... [Charlie's Diary]
The botnet is back again so we're suspending comments until it stops trying to nuke my server.
Quest Fellow Blues [Richard (K) Morgan]
He’d paid the whores for the whole afternoon, but in the end couldn’t summon much enthusiasm for a third go round. Usually, two women at once solved that kind of problem for him, but not today. Maybe it was the smell of damp wool that still clung to their bodies even after they’d peeled naked for him, maybe the fact he caught the mask of fake arousal falling off the face of the younger one a couple too many times in the act. That kind of thing stabbed at him, took him out of the moment. He knew he was paying, but he didn’t like to be reminded of the fact, and back in Yhelteth he wouldn’t have been.
What’s the matter, Dragonbane? You never fucking happy? Up on the steppe, you craved all that southern sophistication you’d left behind. Put you back in the imperial city and you wish you could have the simple life again. Now here you are with simple whores in a simple back-gutter town and that’s not right for you either.
Ye Gods, he missed Imrana.
Wasn’t talking to the bitch currently, but missed her still.
So when the young one knelt before him on the floor and slipped his flaccid cock into her mouth, while her older companion sat on a stool in the corner, legs apart, lifting one pendulous tit at a time and tonguing the nipple with leering glances in his direction, he just grunted and shook his head. Hoisted the girl bodily from her knees – his cock slipped back out of her mouth, still pretty much flaccid – and set her aside. The older whore eyed him warily as he got up off the disheveled bed. He read her thoughts as if they were tattooed across her face. No telling what any paying customer might do when they couldn’t get it up, and this one here was big and battle-scarred, and a foreigner to boot, accent harsh and hair all tangled up with alien talismans in iron. Lurid tales of the Majak had percolated right across the continent in the last couple of centuries – they’d doubtless got as far as the Hironish isles long ago. Bloody steppe savages, disembowel a girl and cook her on a spit soon as look at her most likely if they got out of bed the wrong side one morning……
He forced a reassuring grimace and went to stare out of the window. Heard them move behind him with alacrity, start gathering up their clothes and the coin he’d left on the table. Light-footed, they left in what seemed like seconds and the door of his room clunked shut. He felt the relief it brought go through his whole frame. He slumped against the window frame, rested his head on cool glass. Outside, a light rain was falling into the street, clogging up daylight that was already past its best. A couple of children went past, splashing deliberately in the puddles and yattering some rhyme he could barely make out. He’d learnt the League tongue, more or less, while on campaign in the north during the war, but the Hironish accent was hard work.
Yeah, like their fucking awful food and their fucking awful weather and their fucking awful whores. Three weeks in this shit-hole already, and still no-
Commotion downstairs. A woman shrieked. Furniture went over.
He frowned. Cocked his head at the sound.
Another shriek. Coarse laughter, and men calling to each other. The words were indistinct, but the rhythms were Majak.
Uh-oh.
He grabbed his breeches off the bed, trod hurriedly into them on his way to the door. Shirt off the table as he passed, out into the corridor. Shouldered into it as he went down the stairs. No time for boots or other refinement, because-
He arrived on the ground floor of the inn, barefoot and undone. Surveyed the scene before him.
There were three of them. Shendanak’s men, just in from the street by the look of it, felt coats still buttoned up and damp across the shoulders from the rain. One had the younger of Egar’s whores grasped firmly by the crotch and one tit, was nuzzling and licking at her neck. The other two seemed engaged in facing down the innkeeper.
“Oi!” Egar barked, in Majak. “Fuck do you think you’re doing?”
The one holding the whore looked up. “Dragonbane!” he bawled. “Brother! We were just looking for you! Get your drinking boots on! ‘s time to light this shit-hole town right the fuck up - Majak style!”
Egar nodded slowly. “I see. Whose idea was that, then?”
“Old Klarn, mate! The man himself.” The whore bucked and twisted in the speaker’s grip. She sank teeth into his forearm. He winced and grinned, let go of her crotch, used the free hand to squeeze her jaws open and force her head back, clear of his flesh. Looked like she’d left a pretty distinct bite there in the thick muscle behind the wrist, welling blood and everything, but the Majak’s voice barely wavered from its previous slurring good cheer. Egar estimated he’d been drinking a while. “Said how we’ve been soft-soaping around these fish-fuckers for long enough. Time to get steppe-handed on their arses. In’t that right, boys?”
Growls of approval from the other two. By now they had the innkeeper bent back over his own bar with the flat of a knife blade tapping under his chin and his legs dangling a couple of inches off the sawdusted floor. They flashed cheery, inclusive grins at the Dragonbane.
Egar jerked his chin at the girl. “That’s my whore you’ve got there. Let her go.”
“Your whore?” The other Majak’s face was suddenly a lot less friendly. “Who says she’s yours? She’s down here waggling her tits and arse in grown men’s faces, she-”
“She’s paid until sunset.” Egar shifted his stance a little, squaring up. He nodded at the older whore. “They both are. They’re down here getting me a drink and a platter. So let her go. And you two – let him up as well. How’s the poor fucker supposed to pull my pint for me, if you have him pinned?”
The two Majak at the bar were happy enough to obey. Maybe they’d been drinking less, maybe they were just more intelligent men. They nodded amiably, backed off the innkeeper and let him scramble loose. The one with the knife put his weapon away with a sheepish grin. But the guy with his arm round the whore was going to be a harder push. As Egar watched, he tightened his grip.
“My coin’s as good as anybody’s,” he growled.
Egar took a casual step forward. Measured the room without seeming to. “Then get in the queue with it. Or find yourself another whore. You’re not having mine.”
The other Majak’s hand strayed down towards his belt and the big-hilted killing knife sheathed there. He barely seemed aware of the motion.
“You’ve got ‘til sunset,” he said gruffly, almost reasonably, as if trying to put the case to some court in his own head. “I’ll not need long.”
“I’m not going to tell you again. Let her go.”
Egar saw the other man make his decision, saw it in his eyes even before he went for the knife. His hand clamped down on the hilt, but the Dragonbane was already in motion. Across the scant space between them, bottle snatched up off the table to his right, sweeping in, and a braining stroke across the Majak’s head. He gave it all he had, was actually a bit surprised when the bottle didn’t break first time. The other man reeled from the blow, Egar stepped in after him, swung again, back-handed, and this time – yes! - the glass came apart in a burst of shards and cheap beer. The Majak went down, bleeding from multiple gouges in his forehead. The whore got loose and scurried behind her colleague, the injured man crawled dizzily about on the floor, blood running into his eyes. Egar curled one foot back, mindful of his naked toes and kicked the man hard in the face before he could get up. He brandished the business end of the shattered bottle admonishingly at the other two.
“You boys plan to paint the town, you aren’t going to start in here. Got it?”
Quiet. Beer dripped wetly off the jagged angles of the bottle stump.
The two remaining Majak looked at their companion, curled up on the floor and twitching, then back to the wet gleam of Egar’s makeshift weapon. Rage and confusion struggled on their faces, but so far that was as far as it went. He saw they were both pretty young, reckoned he might be able to play this one out. He waited. Watched one of them rake a hand perplexedly back through his hair and make an angry gesture.
“Look, Dragonbane, we thought-”
“Then you thought wrong.” He had his reputation and his age – things that would have counted for something among Majak back on the steppe, and might play here, if these two hadn’t been away from home too long.
If not, well…..
If not, he had bare feet and a broken bottle. And glass shards on the floor.
Nice going, Dragonbane.
Better make this good.
He put on his best Clanmaster voice. “I am guesting here, you herd-end fuckwits. My bond with these people compels me, under the eyes of the Dwellers, to defend them. Or don’t the shamans teach you that shit anymore when you’re coming up?”
The two young men looked at each other. It was a dodgy interpretation of Majak practice at best – outside of some small ritual gifts, you didn’t pay for guesting out on the steppe. Lodging at a tavern or a rooming house, say, in Ishlin-ichan, wasn’t considered the same thing at all. But Egar was Skaranak and these two were border Ishlinak, and they might not know enough about their northerly cousins to be sure, and in the end, hey, this old guy killed a fucking dragon back in the day, so……
The one on the floor groaned and tried groggily to prop himself up.
Time running out.
Egar pointed downward with the bottle. Played out his high cards. “And what do your clan elders have to say about this shit? Stealing another man’s whore out from under his nose? That okay, is it?”
“He didn’t kn-”
“Pulling a knife on a brother? That okay with you, is it?”
“But you-”
“I’m done fucking talking about this!” Egar let the bottle hang at his side, like he had no need of it at all. He stabbed a finger at them instead, played the irascible clan elder to the hilt. “Now you get him up, and you get him the fuck out of my sight. Get him out of here while I’m still in a good mood.”
They dithered. He barked. “Go on! Take your fucking party somewhere else!”
Something gave in their faces. Their companion stirred on the floor again and they hurried to him. Egar gave them the space, relieved. Kept the bottle ready at his side. They propped the injured man up between them, got his arms over their shoulders, and turned for the door. One of them found some small piece of face-saving bravado on the way out. He twisted awkwardly about with his half of the burden. The anger still hadn’t won out on his face, but it was hardening that way.
“You know, Klarn isn’t going to wear this.”
Egar jutted his chin again. “Try him. Klarn Shendanak is steppe to the bone. He’s going to see this exactly the way it is – a lack of fucking respect where it’s due. Now get out.”
They went, out into the rain, left the door swinging wide in their wake. The Dragonbane found himself alone in a room full of staring locals.
Presently, someone got up from a table and shut the door. Still, no-one spoke, still they went on staring at him. He realised the whole exchange had been in Majak, would have been incomprehensible to everybody there.
He realised he was still holding the jag-ended bottle stump.
He laid it down on the table he’d swiped the bottle from in the first place. Its owner flinched back in his chair. Egar sighed. Looked over at the innkeeper.
“You’d better keep that door barred for the time being,” he said in Naomic. Too the room more generally, he added: “Anyone has family home alone right now, you might want to drink up and get on back to them.”
There was some shuffling among the men, some muttering back and forth, but no-one actually got up or moved for the door. They were all still intent on him, the barefoot old thug with iron in his hair and his shirt hanging open on a pelt going grey.
They were all still trying to understand what had just happened.
He sympathised. He’d sort of hoped -
Fucking Shendanak.
He picked his way carefully through the shards of broken glass on the floor, past the stares, and went upstairs to get properly dressed.
He wanted his boots on for the next round.
*
He found Shendanak holding court outside the big inn on League street where he’d taken rooms. The Majak-turned-imperial-merchant had had a rough wooden table brought out into the middle of the street, and he was sat there in the filtering rain, a flagon of something at his elbow, watching three of his men beat up a Hironish islander. He saw Egar approaching and raised the flagon in his direction.
“Dragonbane.”
“Klarn.” Egar stepped around the roughing up, fended his way past an overthrown punch that skidded inexpertly off the islander’s skull, shoved them all impatiently aside. “You want to tell me what the fuck’s going on?”
Shendanak surfaced from the flagon and wiped his whiskers. “Not my idea, brother. Tand’s getting his tackle in a knot, shouting about how these fish-fuckers know something they’re not telling us. Starts in on how I’m too soft to do what it takes to find out what we need to know. Come on, what am I supposed to do? Can’t take that lying down, can I? Not from Tand.”
“So instead, you’re going to take orders from him?”
“Nah, it’s not like that. It’s a competition, isn’t it, boys.” The Majak warriors stopped what they were doing to the islander for a moment, looked up like dogs called off. Shendanak waved them back to the task. “Tand sets his mercenaries to interrogating. I do the same with the brothers. See who finds out where that grave and that treasure is first. Thousand elemental pay-off and a public obeisance for the winner.”
“Right.” Egar sat on the edge of the table and watched as two of the Majak held the islander up while a third planted heavy punches into his stomach and ribs. “Menith Tand‘s a piece-of-shit slave trader with a hard-on for hurting people, and he’s bored. What’s your excuse?”
Shendanak squinted at him thoughtfully.
“Heard about your little run in with Nabak. You really bottle him over some fishwife whore you wouldn’t share? Doesn’t sound like you.”
“I bottled him because he pulled a knife on me. You need to keep a tighter grip on your cousins, Klarn.”
“Oh, indeed.”
It was hard to know if there’d been a question in Shendanak’s voice or not. Abruptly, his eyes widened and he grabbed the flagon again, lifted it off the table top as the islander staggered back into the table and clung there, panting. The man was bleeding from the mouth and nose, his lips were split and torn where they’d been smashed repeatedly into his teeth. Both his eyes were blackening closed and his right hand looked to have been badly stomped. Still, he pushed himself up off the table with a snarl. Shendanak’s men bracketed him, dragged him-
“You know what,” said Shendanak brightly. He gestured with the flagon “I really don’t think this one knows anything. Why don’t you let him go? Just leave him there. Go on and have a drink before we start on the next one. It’s thirsty work, this.”
The Majak looked surprised, but they shrugged and did as they were told. One of them gave the beaten man a savage kick behind the knee and then spat on him as he collapsed in the street. Laughter, barked and bitten off. Then the three of them went back into the inn, shaking out their scraped knuckles and talking up the blows they’d dealt. Shendanak watched them through the door, waited for it to close before he looked back at Egar.
“My cousins are getting restless, Dragonbane. They were promised an adventure in a floating alien city and a battle to the death against a black shaman warrior king. So far, both those things have been conspicuous by their absence.”
“And you think beating the shit out of the local populace is going to help?”
“Of course not.” Shendanak leaned up and peered over the table at where the islander lay collapsed on the greasy cobbles. Settled back in his seat. “But it will let the men work out some of their frustration. It will exercise them. And anyway, like I said, I really can’t lose face to a sack of shit like Menith Tand.”
“I’m going to talk to Tand,” growled Egar. “Right now.”
Shendanak shrugged. “Do that. But I think you’ll find he doesn’t believe these interrogations are going to help any more than I do. That’s not what this is about. Tand’s men are better trained than mine, but in the end they’re soldiers just the same. And you and I both know what soldiers are like. They need the violence. They crave it, and if you starve them of it for long enough, you’re going to have trouble.”
“Trouble.” Egar spoke the word as if he was weighing it up. “So let me get this straight – you and Tand are doing this because you want to avoid trouble?”
“In essence, yes.”
“In essence, is it?” Fucking court-crawling wannabe excuse for a……. He held it down. Measured his tone. “Let me tell you a little war story, Klarn. You know, the war you managed to sit out, back in the capital with your horse farms and your investments?”
“Oh, here we fucking go.”
“Yeah, well. You talk about soldiers like you ever were one, so I thought I’d better set you straight. Back in the war, when we came down out of the mountains at Gallows Gap, I had this little half-pint guy marching at my side. League volunteer, never knew his name. But we talked some, the way you do. He told me he came from the Hironish isles, cursed the day he ever left. You want to know why?”
“Not really.” Shendanak sighed. “But I guess you’re going to tell me anyway.”
“He left the islands, married a League woman and made a home in Rajal. When the Scaled Folk came, he saw his wife and kids roasted and eaten. Only made it out himself because the roasting pit collapsed in on itself that night and he got buried in the ash. You want to try and imagine that for a moment? Lying there choking in hot ash, in silence, surrounded by the picked bones of your family, until the lizards fuck off to dig another pit. He burnt his bonds off in the embers – I saw the scarring on his arms – then he crawled a quarter of a mile along Rajal beach through the battle dead to get away. Are you listening to me, you brigand fuckwit?”
Shendanak’s gaze kindled, but he never moved from the chair. Horse thief, bandit and cut-throat in his youth, he’d likely still be handy in a scrap, despite his advancing years and the prodigious belly he’d grown. But they both knew how it’d come out if he and the Dragonbane clashed. He made a pained face, sat back and folded his arms.
“Yes, Dragonbane, I’m listening to you.”
“At Gallows Gap, that same little guy saved my life. He took down a pair of reptile peons that got the jump on me. Lost his axe to the first one, he split its skull and while it was thrashing about dying, it tore the haft right out of his grip. So he took the other one down with his bare hands. He died with his arm stuffed down its throat to block the bite. Tore out its tongue before he bled out. Am I getting through to you at all?”
“He was from here. Tough little motherfucker. Yeah, I get it.”
“Yeah. If you or Tand stir these people up, you’re going to have a local peasant uprising on your hands. We won’t cope with that, we’re not an army of occupation. In fact,” Egar’s lip curled. “We’re not an army of any kind. And we are a long way from home.”
“We have the marines, and the Throne Eternal.”
“Oh, don’t be a fucking idiot. Even with Tand’s mercenaries and your thug cousins, we have a fighting muster under a hundred and twenty men. That’s not even garrison strength for a town this size. These people know the countryside, they know the in-shore waters. They’ll melt out of Ornley and the hamlets, they’ll disappear, and then start picking us off at their leisure. We’ll be forced back to the ships – if some fisher crew doesn’t manage to sneak in and burn those to the waterline as well – and we haven’t even provisioned for the trip back yet. It’s better than two weeks south to Gergis, and I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to do it on rainwater and rat-meat.”
“Well, now.” Shendanak made a show of examining his nails – it was pure court performance, something he must have picked it up on the long climb to wealth and power back in Yhelteth. It made Egar want to crush his skull. “Getting a bit precious about our campaigning in our old age, aren’t we Egar? Tell me, did you really kill that dragon back in the war? I mean, it’s just – you don’t talk much like a spit-blood-and-die dragonslayer.”
Egar bared his teeth in a rictus grin. “You want a spanking, Klarn, right in front of your men? I’ll be happy to oblige. Just keep riding me.”
Again, the glint of suppressed rage in Shendanak’s eye. His jaw set, his voice came out soft and silky. “Don’t get carried away here, Dragonbane. You’re not your faggot friend, you know. And he’s not here to back you up, either.”
Egar swore later, if it hadn’t been for that last comment, he would have let it slide.
The Avengers and scientist heroes [Filling the Well]
One of the movies I despise (I have a list of them — movies that make my blood burn just thinking of them) is the War of the Worlds remake starring Tom Cruise that came out several years ago. The reasons for my dislike are many: the thing made no sense (jet crashed in driveway, house still standing, huh?), too much cloying moppet, and its dedication to showing how terrible people can be to each other. Mostly, I despaired because of what the movie demonstrated about where our culture is going. The original George Pal War of the Worlds is great — it’s still scary, it still generally holds up, and the best part is the main characters are scientists trying to figure things out and solve problems. The main character of the remake? A guy who spends the whole movie running around in terror and losing his kids.
For a stretch of time, from about the early nineties on, SF movies haven’t generally featured scientist heroes. No, scientists are the villains who create monsters in labs, who deal with powers they don’t understand, who unleash horrors upon the world with their hubris. I’m thinking of Brent Spiner’s character in Independence Day, the inept alien keeper who ends up smashed on the glass. James Franco’s completely inept character in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Any number of scientist characters in late night SyFy monster movies. You know the character I’m talking about. I propose that these characters do not speak well of how the culture generally perceives scientists: they are people who create problems, rather than solving them.
Which brings me to The Avengers, and one of the things I really like about it, which is Tony Stark and Bruce Banner, in their lab, geeking out over science and solving problems with science. (Their terminology may not be one hundred percent accurate, but at least they tried.) Scientist heroes. Heroes being unabashed fans of science. And other characters listening to them. Between this and Big Bang Theory and Contagion and a couple of other examples running around, maybe we’re leaving behind the age of scientist as villain, and we’ll be seeing more scientist heroes. Speaking of which, isn’t it time for a Buckaroo Banzai remake?
I also decided that Val Kilmer’s character in Real Genius may very well be young Tony Stark, incognito. What do you think?
Advance praise for Pirate Cinema [Cory Doctorow's craphound.com]
My next YA novel is Pirate Cinema, which hits stands on Oct 2. The book has been complete for a long time, and now is the part in its lifecycle where it is in ballistic flight, having been launched from my device with all the skill and concentration that I can muster, with nothing else for me to do until it arrives at its destination. It's a bit of a nailbiting interlude in the lifecycle of a writer, and that's why it was such a treat to read Daniel Kraus's starred review of it in the next Booklist. I don't think I'm supposed to quote the whole thing, so here are some highlights:
...Doctorow’s series starter is his most cogent, energizing call-to-arms to date, an old-fashioned (but forward-thinking) counter-culture rabble rouser that will have dissidents of all ages dying to stick it to the Man...It’s generally accepted that fussing with computers is a narrative buzzkill, yet Doctorow’s unrivaled verisimilitude makes every click as exciting as a band of underdog warriors storming a castle. It’s not exactly Abbie Hoffman’s Steal This Book (1971), but with its delirious insights into everything from street art to urban exploring to dumpster diving to experimental cinema, it feels damn close.
Color me delighted! I'll be on tour with Pirate Cinema in October, and Charlie Stross and I will also be touring our novel-for-adults, Rapture of the Nerds, in early September.
Nerd fatalism, nerd determinism: the problem with nerd politics [Cory Doctorow's craphound.com]
My latest Guardian column is "The problem with nerd politics," and it discusses the twin evils of "nerd determinism" and "nerd fatalism" -- both convenient excuses for people who care about technology policy to avoid politics.
In "nerd determinism," technologists dismiss dangerous and stupid political, legal and regulatory proposals on the grounds that they are technologically infeasible. Geeks who care about privacy dismiss broad wiretapping laws, easy lawful interception standards, and other networked surveillance on the grounds that they themselves can evade this surveillance. For example, US and EU police agencies demand that network carriers include backdoors for criminal investigations, and geeks snort derisively and say that none of that will work on smart people who use good cryptography in their email and web sessions.
But, while it's true that geeks can get around this sort of thing – and other bad network policies, such as network-level censorship, or vendor locks on our tablets, phones, consoles, and computers – this isn't enough to protect us, let alone the world. It doesn't matter how good your email provider is, or how secure your messages are, if 95% of the people you correspond with use a free webmail service with a lawful interception backdoor, and if none of those people can figure out how to use crypto, then nearly all your email will be within reach of spooks and control-freaks and cops on fishing expeditions.
What's more, things that aren't legal don't attract monetary investment. In the UK, where it's legal to unlock your mobile phone, you can just walk into shops all over town and get your handset unlocked while you wait. When this was illegal in the US (it's marginally legal at the moment), only people who could navigate difficult-to-follow online instructions could unlock their phones. No merchant would pay to staff a phone-unlocking role at the corner shop (my dry-cleaner has someone sitting behind a card-table who'll unlock any phone you bring him for a fiver). Without customers, the people who make phone-unlocking tools will only polish them to the point where they're functional for their creators. The kind of polish that marks the difference between a tool and a product is often driven by investment, markets and commercialism.
Why the death of DRM would be good news for readers, writers and publishers [Cory Doctorow's craphound.com]
Here's a podcast of my last Guardian column, Why the death of DRM would be good news for readers, writers and publishers:
At the end of April, Tor Books, the world's largest science fiction publisher, and its UK sister company, Tor UK, announced that they would be eliminating digital rights management (DRM) from all of their ebooks by the summer. It was a seismic event in the history of the publishing industry. It's the beginning of the end for DRM, which are used by hardware manufacturers and publishers to limit the use of digital content after sale. That's good news, whether you're a publisher, a writer, a dedicated reader, or someone who picks up a book every year or two.
The first thing you need to know about ebook DRM is that it can't work.
Like all DRM systems, ebook DRM presumes that you can distribute a program that only opens up ebooks under approved circumstances, and that none of the people you send this program to will figure out how to fix it so that it opens ebooks no matter what the circumstances. Once one user manages that, the game is up, because that clever person can either distribute ebooks that have had their DRM removed, or programs to remove DRM (or both). And since there's no legitimate market for DRM – no readers are actively shopping for books that only open under special approved circumstances – and since the pirated ebooks are more convenient and flexible than the ones that people pay for, the DRM-free pirate editions drive out the DRM-locked commercial editions.
Mastering by John Taylor Williams: wryneckstudio@gmail.com
John Taylor Williams is a full-time self-employed audio engineer, producer, composer, and sound designer. In his free time, he makes beer, jewelry, odd musical instruments and furniture. He likes to meditate, to read and to cook.
Russians perplexed by Putin's snub of G8. Is it because of protests? Obama? [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Seattle skier falls 160 feet into Canadian crevasse, rescued unscathed (+video) [Christian Science Monitor | World]
UN's nuclear agency, Iran begin critical meeting ahead of Baghdad talks [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Dalai Lama wins Templeton Prize, says China suffers from 'moral crisis' [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Coming up: three new chips from Intel [SoftTalk - multicore and parallel programming]
Last week, Intel gave investors their annual briefing, and revealed that there are three new chips we can expect to see released this year. One of these is the Knights Corner co-processor, the many integrated core (MIC) chip which will be familiar to regular blog readers. I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, [...]
Here are two cute sums: (e+1)/2(e-1) = Σn=-∞∞ 1/(1 + 4 π2 n2) π/(1-exp(-π)) - π/2 = Σn=-∞∞ 1/(1+4 n2) The way to prove it is to use the Poisson summation formula, which states that for appropriate functions: Σn=-∞∞ f(n)...
Why Is Death Bad? [Overcoming Bias]
Shelly Kagan considers: why is death bad?:
Maybe … death is bad for me in the comparative sense, because when I’m dead I lack life—more particularly, the good things in life. … Yet if death is bad for me, when is it bad for me? Not now. I’m not dead now. What about when I’m dead? But then, I won’t exist. … Isn’t it true that something can be bad for you only if you exist? Call this idea the existence requirement. …
Rejecting the existence requirement has some implications that are hard to swallow. For if nonexistence can be bad for somebody even though that person doesn’t exist, then nonexistence could be bad for somebody who never exists. … Let’s call him Larry. Now, how many of us feel sorry for Larry? Probably nobody. But if we give up on the existence requirement, we no longer have any grounds for withholding our sympathy from Larry. I’ve got it bad. I’m going to die. But Larry’s got it worse: He never gets any life at all.
Moreover, there are a lot of merely possible people. How many? … You end up with more possible people than there are particles in the known universe, and almost none of those people get to be born. If we are not prepared to say that that’s a moral tragedy of unspeakable proportions, we could avoid this conclusion by going back to the existence requirement. …
If I accept the existence requirement, death isn’t bad for me, which is really rather hard to believe. Alternatively, I can keep the claim that death is bad for me by giving up the existence requirement. But then I’ve got to say that it is a tragedy that Larry and the other untold billion billion billions are never born. And that seems just as unacceptable. (more)
Imagine a couple had been looking forward to raising a child with their combined genetic features, but then discovered that one of them was infertile. In this case they might mourn the loss of a hoped-for child who would in fact never exist. Not just the loss to themselves, but the loss to the child itself. And their friends might mourn with them.
But since this is a pretty unusual situation, we humans have not evolved much in the way of emotional habits and capacities to deal specifically with it. Our emotional habits are focused on the kinds of losses which people around us more commonly suffer and complain. So naturally we aren’t in the habit of taking time out to mourn the loss of a specific Larry. But there are lots of people far from us whose losses we don’t mourn. That hardly means such losses don’t exist.
It seems to me Kagan’s attitude above amounts to insisting that is impossible to imagine a vastly better state (of the universe) than our own. After all, if a vastly better state that ours is “possible”, then the fact that our actual state is not that possible state is a terrible “tragedy”, which he will just not allow.
But if possible states can vary greatly in the amount of good they would embody, then it is almost certain that the good of our actual state holds far less than the maximum good state. This only seems to me a “tragedy”, however, if we could have done something specific to achieve that much better state.
If we can’t see what we could do to allow substantially more creatures to exist, then it isn’t a tragedy that they don’t exist. It is a loss relative to an ideal world where they could exist, but it isn’t a tragedy not to know to create implausibly ideal worlds.
Why National Med? [Overcoming Bias]
People offer many noble rationales for public education, but the data suggest they were adopted to create patriotic citizens for war. I suspect a similar data analysis could show why so many nations have recently adopted national medical systems:
Even as Americans debate … Obama’s healthcare law and its promise of guaranteed health coverage, … many far less affluent nations are moving in the opposite direction – to provide medical insurance to all nations.
China … is on track to .. cover more than 90 percent of the nation’s residents. … Two decades ago, many former communist countries … dismantled their universal health-care systems amid a drive to set up free-market economies. but popular demand for insurance protection has fueled an effort in nearly all these countries to rebuild their systems. Similar pressure is coming from the citizens of fast-growing nations int Asia and Latin America. …
Some countries have set up public systems like those in Great Britain and Canada. But many others are relying on a mix of government and commercial insurance, as in the United States. …
In countries such as India, politicians have learned that one of the surest says to secure votes is to promise better access to health care. … The Thai system, set up a decade ago, has survived years of political upheaval and a military coup. “No party dares touch it.” …
Columbia’s universal system, set up in 1993, has cost more than twice what as expected. (Today’s Post, article by Levey, p. A11; link will go here when available)
My guess: for our distant ancestors, medicine was a way to show that they care about each other. So today there is a demand for medicine to be provided by units of organization toward which we, or they, want us to feel solidarity. But I’m not sure what are the most direct and proximate causes of such a need for solidarity.
The Levant is Going to Hell [Michael J. Totten's blog]
I’ll be back with some full-length journalism tomorrow morning, and in the meantime, things are really going to hell in the Eastern Mediterranean. Syria’s civil war will not only suck in the neighbors, it is also, at the same time, reaching out to engulf the neighbors.
Tripoli, on Lebanon’s northern coast, witnessed street battles between pro- and anti-Assad groups back in February. Violence erupted again over the weekend, and intermittent fighting continued for a third day today. Rocket-propelled grenades and machine-gun fire echoed through part of the city. Perhaps five people have been killed, and dozens wounded. Lebanon’s Daily Star carried ominous reports (“Tension and fear gripped Tripoli Monday after both political and security efforts failed to maintain a cease-fire”) and photos of men carrying rocket launchers through deserted city streets and ducking into alleys with AK-47s and Lebanese Army tanks rolling past apartment blocks.
This is the clearest sign so far that violence from Syria’s civil war will spill into Lebanon, where Butcher Assad has many allies: some in the national government, others in the “official” security services, still others in community and religious groups, and, of course, Hezbollah.
[…]
The worst case scenario is not difficult to envision: the conflict in Syria reignites civil war in Lebanon and merges with sectarian violence in Iraq to destabilize the Fertile Crescent from Beirut to Basra. Given Turkey’s concerns with the Kurds in this region and the religious divisions inside Turkey itself, Istanbul would have a hard time staying out of this conflict. Tehran also would feel a strong pull to engage. The United States on both humanitarian and geopolitical grounds might also be pulled into a conflict of this kind.
Mobile Internet censorship: what's happening and what to do [Open Rights Group]
(Blog) A new report from Open Rights Group and LSE Media Policy Project reveals widespread over-blocking on mobile networks, helping to demonstrate why we shouldn't accept default-on adult Internet filtering
patterns and cycles [Filling the Well]
This weekend is Mother’s Day. For years, I’ve sent out three Mother’s Day cards: to my mom, and to my two grandmothers. One of my grandmothers passed away last November. So, for the first time, I won’t be buying a card for her (even though I’m thinking of her).
In January, my niece Emmy was born. So it turns out, I’m still sending out three Mother’s Day cards: to my mom, my grandmother, and my sister-in-law. Funny how that sort of thing ends up working out.
Happy Mother’s Day, to moms and grandmas and aunts and everybody else with kids in their lives.
Word Games [Michael Yon - Online Magazine]
12 May 2012
Written by MEDEVACmatters.org
Just a reminder of the official US Army position on the need to make changes to MEDEVAC policies and procedures. This is the final three paragraphs of the statement issued by the Army Chief of Public Affairs on January 20, 2012 following the CBS Evening News segment on the death of SPC Chazray Clark:
“Further, arming MEDEVACs would not reduce the need for armed escort. Again, our aircraft travel in pairs. The decision to use escort is the tactical commander’s, and the Army does not dictate how or when it is necessary to use these assets.
Finally, it’s important to remember that the Army would change its policy if battlefield commanders wanted a change. We take our obligation to perform the MEDEVAC mission very seriously. We’re a learning organization and periodically we review our policies to make sure they remain relevant. We looked at the MEDEVAC policy in 2008, but after a review, we determined no change was necessary.
Additionally, neither the International Security Assistance Force or U.S. Forces – Afghanistan has requested a change in policy; because our MEDEVAC crews and aircraft provide the best chance at survival ever seen in warfare, and because — as commanders in Afghanistan have told us — not arming our MEDEVACs and identifying them with the red cross has had no impact on the medical evacuation mission.”
Yep. In 2008 they “looked at MEDEVAC policy” and determined “no change was necessary”. You know, the fact that the number of KIA and WIA increased more than 6 fold in 2009 and 2010 didn’t prompt any new “review” – why would it? This only reflected a sea change in the level of intensity of fighting and the weapons used. Did the number of MEDEVAC helicopters sustaining hits from ground fire increase after 2008?
If fires in your town increased 6 fold year over year, would you expect the fire department to re-examine its operations to make sure it had stations in the right places and procedures that got the fire trucks to the scene of a fire ASAP? If the last time your ambulance service reviewed procedures it defended getting a trauma victim to a medical facility within 2 hours (and accomplished that only 75% of the time) as being OK – would you be sanguine about how they operated? How about if they then published an article informing you that the benefits of the Golden Hour was all a myth?
Between 2008 and 2012 did the Army review some of its policies and procedures? Sure. Was a comprehensive review done? Not that I have found mentioned or documented anywhere. Even in 2012 the Army leadership still points to a 4 year old study done on activities that were conducted at a pace that is a fraction of the current one.
Did the Army heed any after action reports that stated that current launch authority procedures slow the initiation of MEDEVAC missions? No.
What else happened in that time frame? Oh, yeah. The question of removing Red Crosses from the MEDEVAC helicopters and mounting guns was posed to the Army Judge Advocate General by the Army Surgeon General. Much to the horror of AMEDD command, on October 8, 2008 the official 4 page legal opinion from the Office of the Judge Advocate General – International and Operational Law Division said there was no violation of international law or the Geneva Convention if the Red Crosses were removed and the helicopters armed.
“2. Purpose
Reference f. requests legal review of the proposal by C Company (Air Ambulance), 2-227 GSAB, to “paint over” the red crosses on three MEDEVAC Aircraft, in order to employ them as chase aircraft during their upcoming deployment. The unit is intending to keep the MEDEVAC carousels, medical equipment sets, and flight medics on board during all missions and install M240, 7.62 Medium Machine Guns in the door-gunner’s windows. the unit is exploring the possibility of training for aerial gunnery. The unit proposal is to use the aircraft in an escort/support role and use an “extra” set of cargo doors with red crosses for actual MEDEVAC mission, if required, after the M240′s have been removed. This legal review is provided at the request of the Office of the Surgeon General of the Army, to provide a legal opinion as to the implications of the proposed action under the Geneva Convention.
3. Summary Finding
As more fully described below, the arming of the MEDEVAC helicopters and employment in an escort/support role is not legally objectionable, even though it may result in the loss of GWS protection for the aircraft and its crew. However, the Surgeon General should coordinate with the receiving operational commander, to determine the best course of action for this unit, in this mission.
4. Discussion
[snip]
c. Analysis: Removing the distinctive insignia and mounting the M240 Medium Machine Gun (a crew served weapon according to Army doctrine), in order to conduct escort/support missions would be an act “harmful to the enemy,” which would deprive the aircraft, any patients it carried, and its crew of the protections of the GWS. Replacing the red cross insignia and removing the M240 would enable the aircraft to regain the protections of the GWS for the duration of the MEDEVAC mission. The aircraft could be accused of “perfidy,” a law of war violation that involves feigning protected status to gain an advantage on the enemy, should the aircraft be armed with crew-served weapons and marked as a MEDEVAC aircraft, however.
d. Legal/Policy Considerations: Ref. g, the DoD Law of War program, provides that Secretaries of the Military Departments shall develop policies and procedures consistent with the law of war, while Commanders of Combatant Commands must implement the law of war within their respective theater of operations. Longstanding Army policy and doctrine, outlined in ref. c. and para. A-12 of FM 4-02.02, prohibits the mounting of crew served weapons on MEDEVAC aircraft, lest the platform lose its protected status under the GWS. Although the Secretary of the Army has responsibility under ref i. to train, equip and mobilize forces, the Combatant Commanders are responsible under ref. h. to organize them for combat. Accordingly, while the Surgeon General, delegated the responsibility to establish law of war doctrine for medical personnel from the Secretary of the Army, can dictate policy and doctrine in preparing the unit for deployment, it is the receiving theater headquarters which must decide how they are to be organized for combat, as long as it is done in a manner consistent with the Geneva Conventions.
6. Conclusion.
While the GSAB proposal to arm MEDEVAC helicopters and employ them temporarily as escort/support aircraft is not a violation of the law of war, as long as the aircraft does not engage in “perfidy”, this action would deprive the aircraft and crew of any protections available from the GWS. Recommend coordination with the theater operational commander, through ARCENT, to determine the parameters of employment of the unit.”
So armed helicopters can fly MEDEVAC or non-MEDEVAC missions without limitation and no change in the medical equipment on board would be required as long as the Red Cross insignia is not displayed. It was a decision that the JAG opinion said rested with the operational commander. This opinion was signed by Richard B. Jackson, Special Assistant for Law of War Matters.
The only caution is that by removing the Red Cross insignia, it exposes the aircraft and crew to hostile fire from the enemy. Let’s recall the January 20, 2012 statement by the Chief Public Affairs Officer:
“First, there is no evidence, implied or proven, that the enemy deliberately targets MEDEVAC helicopters, but we know from hard experience that the enemy does try to shoot down any and all U.S. and coalition aircraft.“
(Clearly, even the Army says the presence of the Red Cross insignia does not provide the promised protection from the Geneva Convention. What would be lost then by removing them and arming the MEDEVAC helicopters?)
So how did the Army Surgeon General react to getting the A-OK on October 8, 2008 from the JAG to arm the helicopters? On January 8, 2009 he sent a memo to the Deputy Chief of Staff. In the memo Lt. General Schoomaker informed the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army:
“Key Points:
a. There are significant legal concerns regarding the execution of the concept [painting over the Red Crosses and installing M240 crew served weapons on MEDEVAC aircraft] and the likely problems that will arise from a practical standpoint.
b. Longstanding Army policy and doctrine prohibit the mounting of crew served weapons on MEDEVAC aircraft and provide detailed guidance on the utilization of the MEDEVAC aircraft, lest the platform lose its protected status under the Geneva Convention.
c. The Hague Convention, Regulations Respecting the Laws and Customs of War on Land specifically prohibits the misuse of the Red Cross symbol. A misuse would include marked with Red Crosses for offensive operations (M240 crew served weapon viewed as offensive) or in self-defense beyond that allowed by Geneva Convention. The arrangement proposed by the 1st CAB invites the possibility of a Law of War Violation.”
Did you notice the sleight of hand that happened? Aside from not informing the Deputy Chief of Staff of the JAG opinion 90 days earlier approving the Combat Aviation Brigade proposal, the Lt. General misrepresented the facts by saying “There are significant legal concerns” about painting over the Red Crosses and arming the MEDEVAC helicopters.
In points b and c, he has shifted to ignoring the part of the proposed action that painted over the Red Crosses and therefore removed any issue about violating the Geneva Convention and its non-existent protection of MEDEVAC helicopters in 21st century warfare with non-signatory forces.
Lt. General Schoomaker concludes by asking for the Deputy Chief of Staff for the issuance of “immediate guidance in reference to the utilization of MEDEVAC aircraft” that would prohibit the proposed action by the CAB.
I understand that the Army Surgeon General was concerned about losing control of MEDEVAC aircraft. This had been a point of contention since the 1960′s. I do have a problem that he did not rest his case solely on an argument based on assuring adequate equipment availability for MEDEVAC missions. His memo can at best be charitably described as being misleading through omission.
Aside from the core issue at hand in this case (removing Red Cross insignia and arming MEDEVAC helicopters), there is a lesson here about taking Army and DoD statements at face value. If a Lt. General felt comfortable wordsmithing his appeal to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army in a way to manipulate a response, why should we (and interested Congressmen) think we are immune to similar tactics directed at those wishing to review AMEDD and Army handling of MEDEVAC issues? Caveat Emptor.
The original article can be found here.
Thursday in Mosul [Michael Yon - Online Magazine]
12 May 2005
It was noisier than usual last night on Marez; our soldiers were firing 120mm mortars. When large cannons or mortars are fired around you daily, like they were in Baquba, it’s easy to start sleeping through the racket. But since outgoing fire is not common on this FOB, the booms kept some people awake. Then, shortly after sunrise, two rockets flew into base and exploded nearby, causing more sudden noise and injuring a few civilians.
Surrounded by IEDs
Deuce Four headed downtown this morning with several items on their to-do list. One task was to recon a gasoline station that was attacked and destroyed a couple of weeks ago. While we walked around the rubble of the abandoned station, the commander noticed two artillery rounds on the ground. A minute or so later, someone spotted a radio command switch for a very large booby trap.
We were surrounded by nine bombs (large artillery shells) all rigged to explode by radio control.
While I ran away as fast as I could, the soldiers “pulled back quickly” and called EOD, who arrived and removed the bombs without incident.
EOD
As the day progressed, the Deuce Four visited local police stations, checking security, and extending congratulations to chiefs on some recent successes they’ve had in battles with terrorists this past week.
The news back home is showing large increases in violence in certain parts of Iraq. But the soldiers here continue to comment that Mosul, at least, seems to come under better control with every passing month.
Call me Ishmael…or Not: The Identity “Crisis” and Transhumanism [H+ Magazine]
A few month ago, I was at a party. One of the other guests was a woman I knew slightly. She is a graduate student at a certain university in Massachusetts—naturally I won’t say which one. She’s also one of those academics who is, well, what some people would call a “pain in the ass.” I, however, prefer the expression, “uncompromising.” But, I suppose, a rose by any other name, etc.
To my distress, I discovered that she’d heard from a friend of a friend that I write under various pennames. I’m one person when I do technical journalism, another when I do academic stuff, a third when I write fiction, and Victor Storiguard when I write about Transhumanism or when I do stories with a transhumanist theme.
Unfortunately, there was an open bottle of tequila at the open bar. She had never tried the stuff and tucked into it with the zeal of a recent convert. After one or two shots too many, the woman laced into me. Why did I write such drivel? And why under a nom de plume? Why hide my identity? Why conceal myself from the reading public?
I tried to explain that there were good reasons for me to use multiple names. For one thing, it can cost me a lot of money not to. If you’re writing for competing publications, you don’t want to have the same name in both of them. It tends to make one’s editors rather grumpy.
Besides, if you’re doing multiple genres, the way that I do both science fiction and academic nonfiction, you don’t want your readership to be disappointed in you. That is, you don’t want them to go to Amazon, seek out your titles, and then be dreadfully distressed when they find out that what they thought was a good Alien-Invasion-From-Mars story is, in fact, a lengthy and tedious meditation on why Christopher Marlowe had Faust go straight to hellfire while Goethe merely toasted him a bit. So, you write under two names—one for Aliens and one for Faust, and everyone’s happy.
This didn’t satisfy my academic critic. “You are the perfect example of the alienated post-industrial man, estranged from not only society but even from himself,” she said, more or less in those exact words. “You are the living embodiment of the Western World’s current Identity Crisis.”
Then, after giving me a pitying look, she turned away.
2.
I did have some minor vengeance on my academic friend. First, I discovered that she was using the term “Identity Crisis” without knowing that it had been invented by the great psychologist, Erik Erikson. Further, I found, she did not know that he used the term to mean a very specific set of mental problems common to a very specific set of individuals (i.e., people who do not successfully make the transition from adolescence’s natural uncertainty about one’s place in the universe).
Second, her inexperience with tequila became its own reward. The one or two shots too many turned to three or four, and before the night was done she was in the bathroom loudly suffering the consequences. (I may be alienated from my society. But at least I’m not alienated from my lunch.)
But, when I considered the incident later, what struck me most was her use of the word “identity,” and her assumption that we suffer from a crisis of same, that as individuals and as a civilization, we are not quite certain who we are. Moreover, she implied, that uncertainty is intensely painful for us.
And this idea was not original to her. Hang about a few faculty parties at any university, or cruise the web a bit, and you’ll start hearing the same words, repeated in the same ways, and spoken to mean the same thing. We are, say Those Who Know Best, horribly confused. All our certainties are turned to sand.
Thus, those who identified with their nations discover that the West is no longer the dominant culture in the world. We look about, watching the collapse of social structures and social norms, and ask, “Are we still Americans?” (Or Britons or Frenchmen or whatever).
Those of us who once identified with particular economic systems, now regard an economy that seems on the verge of collapse. In an age in which more and more, it seems, a tiny minority of the population controls more and more of the world’s resources, and in which vast corporations do business with fewer and fewer people, we ask “Am I a socialist or a libertarian? Or, indeed, do those terms mean anything at all any longer?”
We, who once knew that if all else failed there was at least the family to fall back on, now see the whole concept of “family” and our roles within it mutate even as we watch. The White Male, for instance, who once took pride in his job and his status as breadwinner, is now unemployed, watches power shift increasingly to his wife or sisters, and asks, “Am I still a man?”
And for all these excellent reasons and more, Those Who Know Best proclaim our Crisis, and wonder out loud if our identities, our very selves, are on the verge of Annihilation.
I think Those Who Know Best are wrong.
Or, more precisely, I hope they are very wrong. Because, if they aren’t, and if there really is a crisis of identity in the West and the world, then it is about to get a whole lot worse.
And Transhumanism will be the cause.
3.
What do we mean by identity?
Well, when we are asked that question, the short answer is “me.” Ego. Self. That something from which we cannot divorce without ceasing to exist. Admittedly, this (like all simple answers) leads to fantastically complicated questions. Am I the same “me” to my friends as I am to my family? Am I the same “me” that I am at work as when I am at play? Am I the same “me” as I write this to you as when I, say, write a letter to my mother?
Complicated questions, indeed, but for the moment let’s leave such queries to philosophers. Let us employ the techniques of wise Brother Occam and take the simplest, most pragmatic position possible. Let us say that “identity” resides within our own skins, or more precisely, our own skulls. In other words, let us assume that “I” is within the brain. That’s where our “selves” are kept, and so there is distinct a limit to that self. It does not extend beyond the cranium. Thus, you and I are separate entities, separate selves, because each of us possesses our own stream of consciousness. What occurs in my brain does not occur in yours.
Ah, but consider what technology can and will do to that definition of self. As anyone who reads H+ Magazine already knows, with bioprobes, brain wave monitors, and MRIs we are getting reasonably close to being able to read thoughts. We’re not there yet, but we are decidedly on our way.
But that means that we can also reproduce thought. If we can read it, we can write it. Soon enough (again, not tomorrow, but eventually) it will be possible for you and I to share thoughts, and sensations, and feelings. With a few nanotechnical devices in the right places, and some (neutrino-based?) successor to cell phone technology, we could be linked. I would know exactly what you felt and thought as you thought it and did it. And, of course, vice versa.
The good news is that finally we’ll have a way to enforce some kind of empathy on even the most self-centered individual. The better news is that the rest of us will have a fantastic new way of experiencing the world. You really will know how someone different from you regards the universe. You really will be able to walk a mile in their shoes.
But there’s the rub. What does it do to our concept of identity? If we can share thoughts, sensations, maybe even memories, are we still two people? Or are we one individual who happens to have a very loosely coupled nervous system?
But we’re just getting started, aren’t we? If you and I can link our psyches, why stop with just the two of us? Why not invite in a dozen friends? Or a hundred?
Or, why stop with human beings? Why not link up with other creatures? A dolphin? A whale? A lioness?
But, if we do that, if we link to things which aren’t human, are we ourselves still entirely human? If I share an intellect with a stag or a bear or a seagull, am “I” to some degree now a stag, a bear, and a seagull?
Let’s take it a step further. Now that we’ve confused ourselves with others, and even with the beasts and the birds of air, we also get a little mixed up on death. For instance, if I am connected to a dozen other people, and perhaps some things which aren’t people, what happens when I die? When, that is, the body in which I was born ceases to function? Well, if parts of my memories and feelings still exist in the shared mind-set of a dozen friends, maybe I’m not actually dead.
Complicated situations. And, all of them, mind you, arise from what we’ll be able to do with technology that is on the horizon—i.e., which isn’t too far beyond what we can do already. Imagine what happens to “self” when we’ve got mind uploading. What will “I” mean when “I” might be a widely distributed collection of natural and artificial bodies and brains, scattered across continents, or even on different planets?
What will identity mean if a thought begins with a part of one’s self that happens to be orbiting Alpha Centauri, and which will not end until a tenuous signal arrives back at earth after four, long, complicated years?
4.
According to my friend and critic, the graduate student, and people like her, this is all a recipe for disaster. How can the concept of “identity” even survive in such an age? How could we, limited humans that we are, endure that loss?
Here, of course, is where I make an audacious statement: to wit, identity ain’t that big a deal.
I know that in an age of individualism and libertarianism, that sounds pretty spooky. But, I will submit that the individual and identity are not quite the same things. I will further submit that most of the time when people talk about “identity,” or an “identity crisis,” they aren’t really talking about the self. They are actually talking about the relationship of the self to a group.
Look at the writings of alienated intellectuals. Listen to the people who say in song or story, “I don’t know who I am.” Almost always, what they are actually saying is “I don’t know who I am … in relation to the larger society.”
Thus, when the citizen of a nation in decline asks, “Am I still an American?” (or a Brit or Frenchman or whatever), what they’re actually asking is “Does this community of people still offer me sufficient rewards, or threaten sufficiently Draconian punishments, to cause me to continue to pretend that its members are somehow related to me, and thus worth dying or killing for, when in fact they are total strangers?”
Similarly, when an individual in a complicated economic system asks, “Should I be a socialist or a libertarian?” what they are actually asking is “Do the people in this particular marketplace value what I have to offer? And will they pay enough for it to justify my continued presence in their community?”
And, finally, the white male American, struggling with the shift of power to his wife and daughter, is not really asking “Am I a man?” but rather “will the inhabitants of this most intimate of all communities—the family—continue to value me even though I no longer have an economic role to play?”
5.
This is not to suggest that the question “Whom am I?” is not real, potent, and haunting. It undoubtedly is. In fact, I suspect it is stamped directly into the human genome. It is literally within our genetics and derives from our fundamental origins, from the long generations we and our predecessors spent on the African veldt. In the wild, membership in a supportive group, and knowing one’s place in it, can mean the difference between life and death. (The rugged individualist is romantic, but has no one to watch his back.)
So, as humans, we worry about identity. “Who am I?” is a genuinely important question, and we justifiably obsess over it. And when we have an “identity crisis,” it really is a crisis.
But what will posthumans do? How will they regard identity?
My guess is that they won’t regard it at all. They won’t think about it. After all, if “identity” is really another name for community interaction, then someone who is linked directly to the brains of other individuals never has to worry about how he or she fits into the group. Or, if the posthuman is, in fact, a collection of coupled bodies and brains, some near and some far, some organic and many not, then she/he will be a community. The individual and the mass will be the same thing.
And besides, if “identity” and “identity crisis” are built directly into the human genome, then transhumans/posthumans may not care to take that particular characteristic with them when they move to the next level of existence. Why bother? It reflects the needs of plains-dwelling creatures living in hunter-gathering bands, endlessly seeking meat and fruit, endlessly trying to avoid lions and tigers and bears (oh my). It may not meet any need possessed of a creature for whom the stars alone are a worthy goal.
I suspect that posthumans will simply abandon identity as a concept, as they will abandon shyness, depression, violent competition for mates, posturing for social position within the tribe, and all those other behaviors that had a role once, long ago, in the world of homo erectus and his many heirs, but not now.
Instead, the posthuman will, like God and Popeye, say “I am what I am,” (or in Popeye’s case, “I yam what I yam.”), and not give a damn about any theories to the contrary. They will simply exist, alone or in groups as they choose, confident and certain of their place in the universe, untroubled by any doubts about who they are.
Indeed, to the posthuman, our own concerns about such things, our asking “Who am I?” will seem at best inexplicable, and at worst frankly laughable.
6.
There is nothing uniquely wrong with being made laughable. To us, the sort of theological questions that are parodied as “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” are a joke. To us, they are the quintessential waste of time and talent. How, we wonder, could some of the most intelligent minds of history have obsessed over them?
Yet, obsess they did, and from their perspective the dancing angels were a serious problem upon which much else depended. If there were a finite number of angels on that pin, then God himself might be limited. The whole concept of omnipotence might be called into question. Perhaps, indeed, an intellectual historian might argue that it was with such questions that humanity began its long ascent to the secular.
And so it will be also with “identity” and “the identity crisis.” For our successors, these will seem as unworthy of attention. Scholars of pre-Singularity humanity will shake their (multi-brained) heads in wonder. How, they will ask, could we have cared so much about something that was so minor? Why did someone calling himself “Victor Storiguard” write an entire essay on the topic? Why did you read it? Why did a half drunken woman’s comments spark the essay in the first place?
So, perhaps, all that I’ve written here is meaningless. And my critic, the woman who rebuked me at the party for my multiplicity of names, is wholly irrelevant.
Yet, I will defend my critic, the woman who discovered tequila’s effects the hard way. I think she touched on something important. Specifically, she raised a question that should haunt us all:
If identity is in fact only an outgrowth of human origins, how many other things that we consider vitally important today will be revealed as merely the workings of ancient neural structures developed by ground-dwelling apes? How many of them shall not manage the transition to posthumanity? What will we lose?
And, more, what we will put in its place?
Victor Storiguard is a former trade press journalist who now teaches English, U.S. and World History, and Creative Writing. He lives in the Boston-area.
Algeria's ruling party wins polls, but turnout sends mixed message [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Rebekah Brooks discusses links to British PM Cameron in phone hacking inquiry [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Italian museum sets its art on fire to protest lack of government funding [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Man aims shoe at Breivik, marking first outburst in surprisingly calm trial (+video) [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Egyptian presidential debate underscores Islamist vs. establishment divide (+video) [Christian Science Monitor | World]
China's standoff with the Philippines heats up with travel warnings, oil drilling [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Russian, French, Italian jobs hang on Sukhoi Superjet crash probe [Christian Science Monitor | World]
Argentina's renationalization of YPF: A push to manage oil on its own terms [Christian Science Monitor | World]
This is what the future of the EU hinges on [Charlie's Diary]
Lots of meaty analysis from Paul Mason, economics editor at BBC's Newsnight, on the nature and origins of SYRIZA, the Greek leftist bloc that is opposed to German-imposed austerity measures (as opposed to PASOK, the main centre-left party, which is reluctantly going along with things).
SYRIZA is an umbrella organization with a bewildering, mangrove-like array of tap-roots. It's also quite possible that there'll be a new election in Greece next month—if the current attempt to form an emergency government of national unity, being brokered by President Karolos Papoulias, fails—and SYRIZA will get to form the next government.
As Mason notes:
the resulting government may, in effect, be little more than a left-social democratic government, despite its symbology and the radicalism of some of its voters. By forcing the mainstream parties into positions where they could not express the will of the majority of centrist voters, the EU may end up destroying the Greek party system as it has been shaped since 1974.
Meanwhile, I note with interest that Greece has the highest per-capita military budget in the EU, the military budget has barely been touched by the austerity measures devastating the rest of the Greek economy, that Greece imports most of its weapons from Germany and France (generously funded by German and French bank loans), and that the military, within living memory, have taken an over-active role in Greek political life. (One hopes that the fate of the junta will act as a salutory warning to any would-be successors.)
Schools Are For War [Overcoming Bias]
The main reason we had rules to force kids to attend primary school was to make obedient soldier citizens to support their nation in time of war. This effect was even stronger for democracies:
Using data from the last 150 years in a small set of countries, and from the postwar period in a large set of countries, we show that large investments in state primary education systems tend to occur when countries face military rivals or threats from their neighbors. By contrast, we find that democratic transitions are negatively associated with education investments, while the presence of democratic political institutions magnifies the positive effect of military rivalries. …
We study historical panel data on education spending and enrollment – for Europe since the 19th century and a larger set of countries in the postwar period – to assess the correlation between military rivalry (or war risk) and primary education enrollment (or the occurrence of educational reforms). … [Our models] show a positive and significant effect of rivalry on primary enrollment, a negative direct effect of democracy, and a positive and significant interaction term between the two. Overall, our empirical results indicate a causal relationship from rivalry to primary educational enrollment. …
An economic literature … finds robust correlations between past wars and current state capacity in international panel data. … [A study] shows that military rivalry raises fiscal capacity in postcolonial developing states. … [Others] find that democracy does seem to have a systematic influence on top rates of estate taxation, whereas wars with mass mobilizations do significantly raise those rates. …
[Prussia pushed schools] to arouse a moral, religious, and patriotic spirit in the nation, to instill into it again courage, confidence, readiness for every sacrifice. …
[France pushed schools to] teach Frenchmen to be confident of their nation’s superiority … It should … eliminate disruptive conflicts and promote the unity of the classes. … The new teaching program … was … designed to teach the child that it was his duty to defend the fatherland, to shed his blood or die for the commonwealth, to obey the government, to perform military service, to work, learn, pay taxes, and so on.
In Prussia, France and Japan … military defeats and/or perceived military threats appear to have prompted an otherwise reluctant ruling class to invest in mass primary education. …In most countries of the sample a war preceded the educational reform, while a democratic transition rarely occurs before the education rise … Most often, the democratic transition instead takes place *after the education reform period. (more)
Innovation Is Random [Overcoming Bias]
A dramatic, and sad, example of how random innovation can be:
A blowtorch flame is barrelling onto its surface to no effect. The egg should have cracked apart within seconds under the blistering heat. Yet after a few minutes, McCann picks it up and holds it in his hand. “It only just feels warm,” he says. He cracks it open and out dribbles a runny yolk. “It hasn’t even begun to start cooking.” That was March 1990, and this remarkable demonstration on the British TV show Tomorrow’s World was about to transform [Maurice] Ward’s fortunes.
The egg itself was nothing special. Its extraordinary resistance to the blowtorch’s heat came from a thin layer of white material that Ward had daubed on its shell. An amateur inventor, … Ward had concocted the stuff with no scientific training and named it Starlite. … Subsequent tests in British and US government labs confirmed that it was the real thing. …
Over the next two decades, Ward made a handful of samples of his material, but always refused to reveal the recipe. Then, in May 2011, he died. … A former hairdresser, in the 1980s [Ward] reportedly ran a small plastics company in northern England. He was also an English eccentric with a white beard, a bow tie and a divergent mind. He told journalists he made some batches of Starlite on his kitchen table in a food processor. ..
Greenbury believes that Ward was never interested in the money. His thinks Ward wasn’t able to relinquish the role of expert. By passing on the responsibility for Starlite to trained scientists, Greenbury suggests, Ward would have lost this coveted status. (more)
Six Million Visits [Overcoming Bias]
According to Sitemeter.com, sometime in the next day or so we should have the six millionth visit to this blog.
BOOK REVIEW: Siege of Washington: The Untold Story of the Twelve Days That Shook the Union [StrategyPage.com]
Weekend Reading [Michael J. Totten's blog]
FASCISM: Reactionary Islamist goons attacked Irshad Manji—a young reformist Muslim woman from Vancouver, British Columbia—with sticks and iron bars while she was promoting her new book in Indonesia. She’s okay, sort of, but her assistant was rushed to the hospital and two others are injured.
Here is Paul Berman’s take in The New Republic.
It is fashionable among the Western apologists for the Islamist movement to insist that genuine reformists and liberals have no audience in the Muslim world. The claim is false. Manji’s earlier book, The Trouble with Islam Today: A Muslim's Call for Reform in Her Faith, has been published, according to the EFD, in more than 30 countries. Manji runs a website, irshadmanji.com, offering translations in Arabic, Urdu and Farsi, which are said to have been downloaded more than 2 million times. But then it shouldn’t be necessary to cite numbers to demonstrate the ability of the genuinely independent thinkers to make themselves heard. Why else are they attacked, after all? Nor do these attacks occur only in Muslim-majority countries. Manji has lately had trouble in Amsterdam, too—where, as everyone will remember, she is hardly the first person to come under attack.
Who will defend these people, these truest heroes of modern freedom? That is the only question.
LIBYA, FAILING MILITIA STATE: “With the lid of the old regime blown away, a plethora of simmering ethnic and racial tensions suppressed by Gaddafi's policy of Arabization have burst into the open. In southern towns, long-standing tensions between Arab tribes and Black Toubou tribes over control of the smuggling routes into the Sahel degenerated into street fighting at a cost of hundreds of lives. Amazigh, or Berber, revivalists based in the coastal town of Zwara fought Arabs in neighboring Reqdaline for control of the Tunisian border. Graffiti promoting ethnic cleansing scars town walls. The goodwill that sustains support for the NTC in Tripoli has largely evaporated in Benghazi, which has precious little to show for engineering the revolt in February 2011, particularly since the leadership moved to Tripoli and is feeding separatist or anarchic tendencies.”
TYPICAL: The Arab world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism accuses the United States of being a state sponsor of terrorism.
THE MIDDLE EAST’S PROBLEM FROM HELL: The longer the war lasts in Syria, the worse the end result is going to be. I’m primarily concerned about the country imploding like a neutron star and sucking in most of the neighbors, but Adam Garfinkle at The American Interest makes the case that it could explode like a supernova.
I would be worried right now if I were a Lebanese. It is impossible to say if the Assad regime can hold out against a radicalized Syrian opposition, with volunteer support pouring in from neighboring countries. Most likely, in my view, it cannot. But it could take many months, even a year or two, for this bloody drama to play out. In the meantime, the conflict will pour across borders, including the Lebanese border, as it has already begin to do. If, in the fullness of time, a jihadi-led or strongly influenced state arises in Syria, or parts of it, then it is virtually inevitable that the Shi’a-tilted status quo in Lebanon will be upset. Sunni radicals in Damascus will not get along with Hizballah, and there are homegrown Sunni radicals in Lebanon that “friends” in Damascus would encourage and support on their behalf. The likely result? A new civil war, with a beginning epicenter most like in and around Tripoli.
HAMAS: Fine, bomb Iran.
IN THE MAIL: Chasing Demons - My Hunt for War Criminals in Bosnia by former military intelligence officer Rick Francona. He spent most of his career in the Middle East and knows far more than he’s allowed to talk about publicly, but he gave me a great interview anyway last year.
OMRI CEREN: “No one expects the anti-Israel wing of the pro-Israel community to make good arguments.”
THE GOOD NEWS is that schools in Timbuktu have re-opened after being conquered by reactionary Islamists. The bad news—and I probably don’t need to tell you what it is—is that boys and girls are now segregated and the teaching of philosophy and evolution is banned. Oh, and alcohol is banned, too, as are uncovered women. And most of the Christians have fled.
WHAT CENTURY IS THIS AGAIN? Thousands of North Korean women sold as slaves in China.
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